Abstract
The notion that adaptive evolution markedly shapes species distribution probabilities has pushed for genomics-informed species distribution models (gSDMs). These models account for intraspecific variation and gene flow to enhance the accuracy of species range projections. Yet, gSDMs remain encumbered by limitations stemming from substantial sequencing costs and from a global change mindset skewed towards climate warming, likely resulting in an overly narrow view on genomic vulnerability. Current developments in sequencing methodologies are paving the way for gSDMs that transcend spatial and temporal constraints. Specifically, the ability to quantify genome-wide standing genetic variation across species’ ranges unlocks bottom-up gSDM, where range projections are shaped by the intrinsic ability of populations to evolve in response to a wide array of environmental stressors. By integrating range-wide variation in dispersal, drift, demographic history and overall adaptive potential, bottom-up gSDMs promise greater realism and robustness in addressing the full spectrum of environmental threats.