Sensitivity of fish stock trajectories to climate forcing and human exploitation at a global scale

Global fisheries are under increasing pressure from overfishing and climate change, threatening marine biodiversity and food security. Disentangling the impacts of these two drivers is essential for sustainable management, yet it remains a major challenge due to the complex nature of marine ecosystems. Here, we utilize a data-driven Empirical Dynamic Modeling (EDM) framework to assess causal relationships between harvest rate, sea surface temperature (SST), and the productivity of fish stocks worldwide. Our analysis identifies fishing pressure as the most prevalent driver of stock productivity, with a causal link detected in stocks. SST was also identified as a significant driver of productivity in stocks. While the impact of harvest rate was stock-specific, being either positive or negative, the influence of SST was predominantly negative and, in many cases, intensifying over time. These results provide empirical evidence that direct exploitation and climate warming are systematically impacting fish stock productivity.