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Reconsidering mistakes: reproduction and replication of Nielsen and Rehbeck (2022)
Document de travail

Reconsidering mistakes: reproduction and replication of Nielsen and Rehbeck (2022)

Gabriel Bayle, Dimitri Dubois et Simon Varaine
CEE-M working papers ; 2026-03
14/01/2026

Résumé

replication reproducibility complexity choice axioms decision theory C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C1 - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General/C.C1.C12 - Hypothesis Testing: General C - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods/C.C9 - Design of Experiments/C.C9.C91 - Laboratory, Individual Behavior D - Microeconomics/D.D0 - General/D.D0.D01 - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles D - Microeconomics/D.D8 - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty/D.D8.D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty D - Microeconomics/D.D9 - Intertemporal Choice/D.D9.D91 - Intertemporal Household Choice • Life Cycle Models and Saving
There is a long-standing debate as to whether violations of rational choice axioms reflect normative deviations from the theory or simply mistakes. We contribute to this debate by reproducing and replicating Nielsen and Rehbeck's (2022) experimental study, with a new focus on heterogeneity across axioms. We conduct a three-part analysis comprising a direct computational reproduction, a robustness reproduction, and a high-powered preregistered replication (N = 451) focusing on the Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives (IIA). We find robust evidence that individuals express a desire to follow canonical axioms, but perceive violations as mistakes only for a subset of them-specifically, IIA and Transitivity. In contrast, we find no evidence that violations of Independence, First-Order Stochastic Dominance, Branching, or Consistency are perceived as mistakes. We discuss these findings through the lens of cognitive complexity, suggesting that individuals may fail to recognize violations of more demanding axioms even when prompted.

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