Résumé
Understanding how species deal with diverse environmental conditions is crucial for predicting their future responses to climate change. In Antarctica, changing sea ice dynamics threaten ice-dependent species. While behavioural adjustments could help mitigate these threats, their effectiveness under future environmental conditions and potential thresholds remain unclear. Long-term studies and circumpolar approaches could address this challenge. Our 15-year study (2010-2024) of over 23,000 foraging trips from Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae ) in East Antarctica, identified a non-linear relationship between sea ice concentration (SIC) and foraging effort when landfast ice was absent, a situation anticipated to define the species′ future habitat during chick-rearing. Minimal effort occurred at 10-20% SIC, but more than doubled with the presence of landfast ice or heavy pack-ice, with females showing greater sensitivity to these ice changes. A circumpolar analysis of similar data demonstrated that foraging effort during chick-guarding predicted reproductive success across ten Adélie penguin populations. Reproductive success remained high until foraging trips exceeded approximately 29 hours, after which performance declined sharply. This indicates that while behavioural flexibility can buffer against moderate environmental changes, it has clear limits. Our findings establish foraging trip duration as a valuable early warning indicator for population responses to environmental change.