Abstract
The electric scooter, known for its fun, compact, design and affordability, seemed set for significant growth. However, its sales in France have sharply declined over the past two years (-25%). This raises the question: is this decline due to temporary circumstances or more fundamental issues? While factors such as a post-pandemic fad and decreasing purchasing power may contribute, they appear insufficient to explain the trend. This article investigates the deeper structural issues using two analytical tools: 1/ The concept of modal system, which allows for the analysis of the evolutionary dynamics of a given mode of transport; 2/ A comparison between e-scooters and competing modes of transport, particularly bicycles. Our analysis reveals that structuring a robust "e-scooter system" is quite challenging. E-scooter users often demand unrealistic freedom of use despite their vulnerability to accidents. The technical attributes of e-scooters render them inherently unsafe, and the available infrastructure for their use is limited. Moreover, regulations are becoming increasingly stringent, even though France remains one of the more lenient countries in Europe. Safety concerns continue to emerge as a key issue. The article delves into this aspect, highlighting the alarming frequency of e-scooter accidents, including numerous solo falls and faceplants. While it remains challenging to quantify precisely, the risk associated with e-scooter use appears to be three times higher than that of bicycles. Additionally, due to their largely passive usage, e-scooters present a negative public health impact. Nevertheless, they are likely to sustain and even grow in specific niches when alternatives like cars, public transport, or walk-ing are less appealing, or when securely parking or transporting a bicycle becomes problematic.