Abstract
Climate change impacts forest functioning and dynamics, but large uncertainties remain regarding the interactions between species composition, demographic processes and environmental drivers. While the effects of changing climates on individual plant processes are well studied, few tools dynamically integrate them, which precludes accurate projections and recommendations for long-term sustainable forest management. Forest gap models present a balance between complexity and generality and are widely used in predictive forest ecology, but their lack of explicit representation of some of the processes most sensitive to climate changes, like plant phenology and water use, puts into question the relevance of their predictions. Therefore, integrating trait- and process-based representations of climate-sensitive processes is key to improving predictions of forest dynamics under climate change. In this study, we describe the PHOREAU model, a new semi-empirical forest dynamic model resulting from the coupling of a gap model (FORCEEPS), with two process-based models: a phenology-based species distribution model (PHENOFIT) and a plant hydraulics model (SurEAU), each parametrized for the main European species. The performance of the resulting PHOREAU model was then evaluated over many processes, metrics and time-scales, from the ecophysiology of individuals to the biogeography of species. PHOREAU reliably predicted fine hydraulic processes at both the forest and stand scale for a variety of species and forest types. This, alongside an improved capacity to predict stand leaf areas from inventories, resulted in better annual growth compared to ForCEEPS, and a strong ability to predict potential community compositions. By integrating recent advancements in plant hydraulic, phenology, and competition for light and water into a dynamic, individual-based framework, the PHOREAU model, developed on the Capsis platform, can be used to understand complex emergent properties and trade-offs linked to diversity-effects effects under extreme climatic events, with implications for sustainable forest management strategies.