Résumé
Climate change, which is largely linked to human activities, is already
having a considerable impact on our societies. Based on current trends, climate
change is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Beyond its impact on
the pace of natural disasters (floods, hurricanes, etc.), climate change may
have catastrophic consequences for human life and health. One of the concerns
is the increase in the transmission of viruses spread by mosquitoes. Indeed,
rising temperatures have a direct positive impact on the viability of
mosquitoes in ecosystems, leading to their abundance and thus the risk of
exposure of human populations to these pathogens. This study quantifies the
consequences of global warming on the risk of epidemics of viruses transmitted
by the Aedes Albopictus mosquito in metropolitan France. This mosquito, which
is a vector for the Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika viruses, among others, arrived
in mainland France in 2004 and has since spread throughout the country. Thanks
to the association previously established between the probability of the
presence of the mosquito and the average temperature combined with a
mathematical model, the probability of an epidemic and the number of people who
could be infected and die during a season in each department are estimated. If
there is a high degree of heterogeneity in metropolitan France, nearly 2,000
deaths per year could be expected by 2040.