Abstract
Anthropogenic landscape modification may lead to the proliferation of a few species and the loss of many. Here we investigate mechanisms and functional consequences of this winner-loser replacement in six human-modified Amazonian and Atlantic Forest regions in Brazil using a causal inference framework. Combining floristic and functional trait data for 1,207 tree species across 271 forest plots, we find that forest loss consistently caused an increased dominance of low-density woods and small seeds dispersed by endozoochory (winner traits) and the loss of distinctive traits, such as extremely dense woods and large seeds dispersed by synzoochory (loser traits). Effects on leaf traits and maximum tree height were rare or inconsistent. The independent causal effects of landscape configuration were rare, but local degradation remained important in multivariate trait-disturbance relationships and exceeded the effects of forest loss in one Amazonian region. Our findings highlight that tropical forest loss and local degradation drive predictable functional changes to remaining tree assemblages and that certain traits are consistently associated with winners and losers across different regional contexts.