Abstract
In this issue Aging Clinical and Experimental Research publishes a short communication by Ugo Fedeli and colleagues on the excess mortality observed in the north of Italy during the winter 2014/2015 and the summer 2015 [1]. While mortality fluctuations were thought to belong to history, large fluctuations are returning rapidly, from one winter to another. Excess mortality struck during the winters 2011/2012, 2014/2015, and again during the winter 2016/2017 [2, 3]. The graphs available on the Euro-MOMO (European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action) website, which includes data from 19 European countries, speak for themselves. In France, for example, the number of deaths among those over 80 years of age increased by 23,846 cases in 2012 compared to 2011 and again by 28,095 cases in 2015 compared to 2014. A new surge of mortality is expected in 2017 compared to 2016. This excess of mortality is essentially concentrated during the influenza episodes that occurred in the first months of the years 2012, 2015, and 2017. These episodes are characterized by the predominance of influenza A H3N2 virus which specifically affects the oldest-old population. For the sole winter 2014/2015, the mortality excess among the old population was estimated at 217,000 premature deaths in the European Union, which is considerably more that the death toll of the 2003 European heat wave. Is it Murphy’s law or a profound change in the risk structure?