Résumé
Most existing projection models forecast that Indonesia will become a net importer of increasing amounts of basic cereals such as rice, maize and wheat, implicitly providing grounds for the government's continuing pursuit of food self-sufficiency at any cost. A growing urban population, increases in income per capita, trends in planted area and new technologies are determining factors used in these models. The present paper employs a scenario approach based on a combination of time-series models, qualitative assessments and a cross-country analogy with Malaysia to build a picture of likely food cereal production and consumption patterns in 2020. Consequent levels of imports are calculated and estimates of their weight in the Indonesian economy are presented, comparing four periods: 1975, 1990, 2005 and 2020. These estimates are then used in considering policy issues related to food security and self-sufficiency.