Résumé
This study aims to provide a transferable methodology in the context of sport performance modelling, with a special focus to the generalisation of models. Data were collected from seven elite Short track speed skaters over a three months training period. In order to account for training load accumulation over sessions, cumulative responses to training were modelled by impulse, serial and bi-exponential responses functions. The variable dose-response (DR) model was compared to elastic net (ENET), principal component regression (PCR) and random forest (RF) models, while using cross-validation within a time-series framework. ENET, PCR and RF models were fitted either individually (M_I) or on the whole group of athletes (M_G). Root mean square error criterion was used to assess performances of models. ENET and PCR models provided a significant greater generalisation ability than the DR model (p = 0.018 , p < 0.001 , p = 0.004 and p < 0.001 for ENET_I , ENET_G , PCR_I and PCR_G , respectively). Only ENET_G and RF_G were significantly more accurate in prediction than DR (p < 0.001 and p < 0.012). In conclusion, ENET achieved greater generalisation and predictive accuracy performances. Thus, building and evaluating models within a generalisation enhancing procedure is a prerequisite for any predictive modelling.