Résumé
The annual hydrological regime of the Nakambe River shows substantial changes during the period 1955–1998 with a shift occurring around 1970. From 1970 to the mid-1990s, despite a reduction in rainfall and an increase in the number of dams in the basin, average runoff and maximum daily discharges increased. This paper reviews the hydrological behaviour of the Nakambe River from 1955 to 1998 and examines the potential role of land use change on soil water holding capacity (WHC) in producing the counter-intuitive change in runoff observed after 1970. We compare the results of two monthly hydrological models using different rainfall, potential evapotranspiration and WHC data sets. Model simulations with soil WHC values modified over time based upon historical maps of land use, are compared against simulations with a constant value for WHC. The extent of natural vegetation declined from 43 to 13% of the total basin area between 1965 and 1995, whilst the cultivated areas increased from 53 to 76% and the area of bare soil nearly tripled from 4 to 11%. The total reduction in WHC is estimated to range from 33 to 62% depending on the method used, either considering that the WHC values given by the FAO stand for the environmental situation in 1965 or before. There is a marked improvement in river flow simulation using the time-varying values of soil WHC. The paper ends with a discussion of the role of other factors such as surface runoff processes and groundwater trends in explaining the hydrological behaviour of the Nakambe River.