Résumé
This article presents an econometric analysis of the direct effects of the RandD tax credit (RTC) on private RandD in France and proposes an ex ante evaluation of the major reform implemented in 2008. We first estimate an error correction model of a dynamic R&D demand function on a large panel data of RandD doing firms, obtaining a preferred estimate of -0.4 for the long run elasticity of the user cost of RandD capital. We then perform a micro-simulation of the effects of the 2008 RTC reform that shows that the implicit long run budget multiplier would be about 0.7. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT] Reprinted by permission of Oxford University Press