Abstract
In the context of global change, endangered species such as sea turtles undergo strong population dynamics changes. Understanding demographic processes inducing such changes is critical for developing appropriate measures for conservation and management. Nesting females of the French Guiana population of leatherback sea turtles Dermochelys coriacea re presented 40% of the world’s total in 2001; today, they represent only 10%. Here, we analyze data from the long-term monitoring program of leatherbacks in French Guiana, based on 28 yr of capture-markrecapture data from 46 051 individuals in northwestern French Guiana. We used multievent models (multistate capture-recapture models with state uncertainty) to represent the main peculiarity of the life cycle, intermittent reproduction, and to take advantage of the use of several different types of marks to account for mark loss and incomplete detection. The average annual adult survival probability (mean ± SE) 0.789 ± 0.009 is low compared to published estimates for this species. By combining the estimates of departure and return probabilities, we provide an estimate of the interval among laying seasons equal to 2.777 ± 0.118 yr, which matches previous findings. Taking survival into account, this interval translates into an average of 1.704 ± 0.034 further reproductive seasons for an adult female having just bred, which is remarkably low compared to other longlived vertebrates. The representation of the life cycle and mark loss in our models provides a sound structure for broader and richer analyses to extract biological information from marked individuals and offers an invaluable source of demographic information on leatherbacks, a species for which only a small segment of the population is accessible to intermittent sampling.