State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Jacob Schewe; Simon Gosling; Christopher Reyer; Fang Zhao; Philippe Ciais; Joshua Elliott; Louis Francois; Veronika Huber; Heike Lotze; Sonia I Seneviratne; Michelle van Vliet; Robert Vautard; Yoshihide I Wada; Lutz Breuer; Matthias Büchner; David Carozza; Jinfeng Chang; Marta Coll; Delphine Deryng; Allard de Wit; Tyler Eddy; Christian Folberth; Katja Frieler; Andrew Friend; Dieter Gerten; Lukas Gudmundsson; Naota Hanasaki; Akihiko Ito; Nikolay Khabarov; Hyungjun J Kim; Peter Lawrence; Catherine Morfopoulos; Christoph Müller; Hannes Müller Schmied; René Orth; Sebastian Ostberg; Yadu N. Pokhrel; Thomas A.M. Pugh; Gen Sakurai; Yusuke Satoh; Erwin Schmid; Tobias Stacke; Jeroen Steenbeek; Jörg Steinkamp; Qiuhong Tang; Hanqin Tian; Derek Tittensor; Jan Volkholz; Xuhui Wang; Lila Warszawski

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

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State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

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State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Jacob Schewe, Simon Gosling, Christopher Reyer, Fang Zhao, Philippe Ciais, Joshua Elliott, Louis Francois, Veronika Huber, Heike Lotze, Sonia I Seneviratne, …

Nature Communications, Vol.10(1)

2019

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-08745-6

Abstract

Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.

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Title: State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
Creators - without role: Jacob Schewe - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Simon Gosling - University of Nottingham
Christopher Reyer - Leibniz Association
Fang Zhao - East China Normal University
Philippe Ciais - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Joshua Elliott - University of Chicago
Louis Francois - University of Liège
Veronika Huber - Universidad Pablo de Olavide
Heike Lotze - Dalhousie University
Sonia I Seneviratne - ETH Zurich
Michelle van Vliet - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
Robert Vautard - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement
Yoshihide I Wada - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Lutz Breuer - University of Giessen
Matthias Büchner - Leibniz Association
David Carozza - McGill University
Jinfeng Chang - Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines
Marta Coll - Institut de Ciències del Mar
Delphine Deryng - Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
Allard de Wit - Wageningen University & Research
Tyler Eddy - Dalhousie University
Christian Folberth - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Katja Frieler - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Andrew Friend - University of Cambridge
Dieter Gerten - Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
Lukas Gudmundsson - ETH Zurich
Naota Hanasaki - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Akihiko Ito - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Nikolay Khabarov - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Hyungjun J Kim - The University of Tokyo
Peter Lawrence - NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research
Catherine Morfopoulos - Imperial College London
Christoph Müller - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Hannes Müller Schmied - Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main
René Orth - Bolin Centre for Climate Research
Sebastian Ostberg - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Yadu N. Pokhrel - Michigan State University
Thomas A.M. Pugh - University of Birmingham
Gen Sakurai - National Agriculture and Food Research Organization
Yusuke Satoh - National Institute for Environmental Studies
Erwin Schmid - BOKU University
Tobias Stacke - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Jeroen Steenbeek - Ecopath International Initiative
Jörg Steinkamp - Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre
Qiuhong Tang - Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research
Hanqin Tian - Auburn University
Derek Tittensor - World Conservation Monitoring Centre
Jan Volkholz - Leibniz Association
Xuhui Wang - Peking University
Lila Warszawski - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
Publication Details: Nature Communications, Vol.10(1)
Identifiers: 9933771809311
Academic Unit: Université de Montpellier
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
Local Fields: hal-02895259