Abstract
This paper examines the effect of rainfall decline on water resources in each sub-basin (Bozoum: 8100 km2 and Bossangoa: 22,800 km2) and at the outlet of Batangafo (43,650 km2) over the 1951–1995 period, due to a lack of measurements since 1996. Annual, monthly, and daily series of rainfall and discharges were subjected to statistical tests (rainfall and flow indices, SPI, search for ruptures/breaks, depletion coefficient, and potential groundwater discharge) to present and discuss the rainfall variability impact on the water resources of the whole basin. The average rainfall per sub-basin decreases from the west to the east according to the Ouham river direction: 1423 mm at Bozoum, 1439 mm at Bossangoa, and 1393 mm at Batangafo, the main outlet. The SPI approach provides evidence of a moderate to normal drought in the whole basin in the 1980s, mainly compared to the 1970s. Thus, deficient breaks in the rainfall series of the Ouham Basin at Batangafo were noticed in 1967 (Bossangoa and Batangafo) and 1969 (Bozoum). A declining rainfall of −5% on average tended to have the highest impact on the runoff deficit, from about −30 to −43%. The deficit seems more important from west to east, and is also high over the groundwater in each outlet (−33% at Bozoum, −29% at Bossangoa, and −31% at Batangafo) in the 1986–1995 period, despite rainfall recovery in 1991 having generated a flow increase in 1995 at Bossangoa as well as at Batangafo. At the same time, Chari/Logone at Ndjamena recorded critical discharges in both 1987 (313 m3/s) and 1990 (390 m3/s) before they increased, such as on the Ouham. These results demonstrate the decline in water resources in the Ouham River, and their direct impact on the water level of the Chari River and Lake Chad in the targeted period.