Abstract
Despite global calls to raise protection for nature, efforts proliferate to reduce the extent of, and restrictions in, protected areas (PAs) via legal changes to downgrade, downsize, or degazette PAs (PADDD). Protected area downgrading, downsizing, and degazettement studies have considered the tropics, despite significant data and relevance for the Global North, and focused on fixed proxies for economic opportunity cost. Given important political dynamics, we focus instead on the U.S. and shifts in political representation. We examine 2001-2018 federal PADDD events in the U.S., using panel data to control for all fixed factors. We study how elections that shift representatives and senators affect U.S. PADDD. Indeed, shifts at district, state, and national levels appear to influence PADDD. Specifically, shifts that put Republicans into office raised risks for PADDD events, especially proposals. Our empirical results highlight shifts in political power as an ongoing challenge to conservation, even after the establishment of protected areas.