Abstract
The national strategic plans present Member states’ implementation choices for the 2023-2027 CAP. First, our analysis specifies the redistributive choices made by the Member states. Based on these, we propose a projection of the distribution of aid for 2023, which we compare to a distribution of aid without the planned redistribution tools. We thus identify the most willing states. Finally, we simulate ambitious redistribution scenarios by focusing on the redistributive payment. This payment is distributed for the first hectares of all farms and aims to redistribute part of payments to small and medium-sized farms. The scenarios highlight the different policy trade-offs that arise from the application of the redistributive payment.