Résumé
Modelling of the spatial distribution of bovine trypanosomosis prevalence in Sideradougou district Burkina Faso was performed by using a combination of spatial and statistical analysis. Based on a comprehensive and geographically representative census of herds and farms in the area, more than 2000 cattle were randomly chosen and their blood sampled during field survey. Data on livestock farming practices were recorded for each farm. All data were mapped within a GIS to generate new information on spatial constraints in the area.
Surveys results were analysed and serological prevalence data were modelled using logistic regression. The model allowed identification and quantification of risk factors. In a second step the statistical model was used predictively on the entire farm population in the area. This method was successful in predicting the serological prevalence for each individual herd in the sample, from their livestock management patterns and spatial location. Predicted prevalences were represented within the GIS, taking daily movements of animals into account. Spatial distribution of prevalence would illustrate specific locations at risk from an epidemiological viewpoint. It gives evidence that the hydrological network and land occupation patterns in the savanna-type countryside are playing an important part when structuring a so-called “trypanosomosis space”.