Résumé
Biofouling of ship hulls is one of the most important vectors for the transfer of aquatic invasive species. These species cause widespread impacts to native environments and ecological communities, in addition to imposing financial costs for industry. Targeted surveillance and effective adaptive management require knowledge on the likelihood of new introductions of non-indigenous species (NIS). We develop a model of the likelihood of introduction and invasion of NIS for the port of Arzew (Algeria), based on the length of stay of vessels in the ports of call, the latitude of these ports, the geographical distance from the port of Arzew, ship's speed, effectiveness of the antifouling system and antifouling strategy used in port of origin. We identified areas that represent a source of high risk species invasion, according to the environmental similarity of the ports of origin with the Arzew port using the Mahalanobis distance. We show that over one year, 738 trips have been made at the port of Arzew, inflicting a very high risk of invasion, in particular from six coastal ecoregions, (the Western Mediterranean ecoregion, the Northern and Central Red Sea, the South European Atlantic Shelf, the Ionian Sea ecoregion, the North Sea, and the Aegean Sea). These results can be used for invasive species management purposes, such as: the application of specific regulations to high-risk vessels and ports in order to minimize the transfer of these species. The methods and models developed here are transferable to any region around the world with similar data availability.