Résumé
•An integrated water management approach coupled to a specific typology is proposed.•The ability of water resources to meet water demands is assessed in the Ebro basin.•Water tensions could rise by the 2050 horizon if no adaptation strategies are set.•Sectors and seasons most vulnerable to water use conflicts are identified.
Worldwide studies have shown that the Mediterranean region is one of the most vulnerable areas to water crisis. The region is characterized by limited and unequally distributed water resources and increasing water demands. The Ebro catchment (85,000km2, Spain) is representative of this context. Since the late 1970s, a negative trend in river discharge has been observed, attributed to a decrease in mean precipitation, and a rise in mean temperature and in water consumption. Finally, over 230 storage dams regulate river discharge. In this context, an integrated water resources modeling framework was developed to evaluate the current and future capacity of water resources to meet domestic and agricultural water demands as well as environmental flow requirements. The approach was driven by a conceptual rainfall-runoff model generating water supplies and by a demand driven storage dam model. The approach defines current pressures on water resources and evaluates future changes in water allocation in the medium term under climatic and water use scenarios, considering changes in population and in irrigated areas. Currently, water demands in the Ebro catchment are satisfied. In 2050, water resources are projected to decrease by 15–35% during spring and summer, leading to growing competition among users and severe water shortages for irrigated agriculture. This study provides an original approach to identify the most vulnerable regions to water use conflicts. It also highlights the interest of integrated modeling for complete analysis of the ability of water resources to meet water demands in complex change scenarios as a support for decision making.