Abstract
The success of tree recruitment in Mediterranean holm oak (Quercus ilex) forests is threatened by the increasing intensity, duration and frequency of drought periods. Seedling germination and growth are modulated by complex interactions between abiotic (microhabitat conditions) and biotic factors (mycorrhiza association) that may mitigate the impacts of climate change on tree recruitment. To better understand and anticipate these effects, we conducted a germination experiment in a long-term precipitation reduction (PR) field experiment where we monitored seedling establishment and survival, micro-habitat conditions and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) colonization by different mycelia exploration types during the first year of seedling growth. We hypothesized that (i) the PR treatment decreases seedling survival relative to the control with ambient conditions, (ii) microhabitat conditions of water and light availability are better predictors of seedling survival than the PR treatment, (iii) the PR treatment will favour the development of ECM exploration types with drought-resistance traits such as differentiated rhizomorphs. Contrary to our first hypothesis, seedling survival was lower in control plots with overall higher soil moisture. Micro-habitat light and soil moisture conditions were better predictors of seedling survival and growth than the plot-level PR treatment, confirming our second hypothesis. Furthermore, in line with our third hypothesis, we found that ECM with longer extramatrical mycelia were more abundant in the PR treatment plots and were positively correlated to survival, which suggests a potential role of this ECM exploration type in seedling survival and recruitment. Although summer drought was the main cause of seedling mortality, our study indicates that drier conditions in spring can increase seedling survival, presumably through a synergistic effect of drought adapted ECM species and less favourable conditions for root pathogens.