Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Manon Clairbaux; William Cheung; Paul Mathewson; Warren Porter; Nicolas Courbin; Jérôme Fort; Hallvard Strøm; Børge Moe; Per Fauchald; Sébastien Descamps; Hálfdán Helgason; Vegard Bråthen; Benjamin Merkel; Tycho Anker-Nilssen; Ingar S. Bringsvor; Olivier Chastel; Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard; Jóhannis Danielsen; Francis Daunt; Nina Dehnhard; Kjell Einar Erikstad; Alexeï Ezhov; Maria Gavrilo; Yuri Krasnov; Magdalene Langset; Svein‐håkon Lorentsen; Mark Newell; Bergur Olsen; Tone Kirstin Reiertsen; Geir Systad; Thorkell Lindberg Thórarinsson; Mark Baran; Tony Diamond; Annette L Fayet; Michelle G Fitzsimmons; Morten Frederiksen; Grant Gilchrist; Tim Guilford; Nicholas Per Huffeldt; Mark Jessopp; Kasper L. Johansen; Amy-Lee Kouwenberg; Jannie Fries Linnebjerg; Laura Mcfarlane-Tranquilla; Mark Mallory; Flemming Merkel; William Montevecchi; Anders Mosbech; Aevar Petersen; David Grémillet

doi:10.1111/gcb.15497

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Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Journal article

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Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Manon Clairbaux, William Cheung, Paul Mathewson, Warren Porter, Nicolas Courbin, Jérôme Fort, Hallvard Strøm, Børge Moe, Per Fauchald, Sébastien Descamps, …

Global Change Biology, Vol.27(7), pp.1457-1469

04/2021

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497

PMID: 33347684

Abstract

DBEM

energy requirement

mechanistic habitat selection

NicheMapperTM

Paris agreement

RCP scenarios

seabird distributions

seabird migration

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic sea-bird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean

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Title: Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean
Creators - without role: Manon Clairbaux - Université de Montpellier, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CEFE
William Cheung - University of British Columbia
Paul Mathewson - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Warren Porter - University of Wisconsin–Madison
Nicolas Courbin - Université de Montpellier, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CEFE
Jérôme Fort - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Hallvard Strøm - Norwegian Polar Institute
Børge Moe - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Per Fauchald - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Sébastien Descamps - Norwegian Polar Institute
Hálfdán Helgason - Norwegian Polar Institute
Vegard Bråthen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Benjamin Merkel - Norwegian Polar Institute
Tycho Anker-Nilssen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Ingar S. Bringsvor - Norwegian Ornithological Society [Norway]
Olivier Chastel - Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé
Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Jóhannis Danielsen - Havstovan
Francis Daunt - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Nina Dehnhard - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Kjell Einar Erikstad - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Alexeï Ezhov - Murmansk Marine Biological Institute
Maria Gavrilo - Northern (Arctic) Federal University
Yuri Krasnov - Murmansk Marine Biological Institute
Magdalene Langset - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Svein‐håkon Lorentsen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Mark Newell - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Bergur Olsen - Havstovan
Tone Kirstin Reiertsen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Geir Systad - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Thorkell Lindberg Thórarinsson - Nature Research Centre
Mark Baran - University of New Brunswick
Tony Diamond - University of New Brunswick
Annette L Fayet - University of Oxford
Michelle G Fitzsimmons - Environment and Climate Change Canada
Morten Frederiksen - Aarhus University
Grant Gilchrist - Environment and Climate Change Canada
Tim Guilford - University of Oxford
Nicholas Per Huffeldt - Aarhus University
Mark Jessopp - University College Cork
Kasper L. Johansen - Aarhus University
Amy-Lee Kouwenberg - Birds Canada
Jannie Fries Linnebjerg - Aarhus University
Laura Mcfarlane-Tranquilla - Auteur indépendant
Mark Mallory - Acadia University
Flemming Merkel - Aarhus University
William Montevecchi - Memorial University of Newfoundland
Anders Mosbech - Aarhus University
Aevar Petersen - Auteur indépendant
David Grémillet - University of Cape Town
Publication Details: Global Change Biology, Vol.27(7), pp.1457-1469
Grant note: Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, Greenland GovernmentNew Brunswick Wildlife TrustUniversity of New BrunswickFederal Government of CanadaGovernment of GreenlandDanish Ministry of Environment and FoodNatural Resources Canada. Grant Number: 213-08Environment and Climate Change CanadaFrench Polar Institute Paul Emile VictorExcellence Chair Nouvelle Aquitaine
Identifiers: 9939191109311
Academic Unit: Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CEFE
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
Local Fields: hal-03088572