Abstract
The increasing pressure on marine resources due to the high demand for fish and fishery products from an increasing population can lead to the overexploitation of fish stocks worldwide. In addition, climate change has already impacted fish populations pushing them towards states never seen before with a risk of irreversible changes. Evaluating the socioeconomic consequences of climate and anthropogenic impacts is challenging due to the large variety of interactions between social, ecological, and economic systems that make future effects difficult to predict. In this study, we develop climate-socioeconomic scenarios for the Gulf of Lion’s most important commercial fisheries using the MEFISTO bioeconomic model. Here, the biomass, catches and profit changes for the main commercial species (anchovy, sardine, hake and red mullet) and three fleets (demersal trawlers, gillnets, purse seiners) are modeled. We project the potential future storylines of fisheries under four different climate-driven and socio-political scenarios considering changes along three components: (i) climate change affecting fish stocks’ productivity through physiological processes, (ii) economic changes impacting fish price and fishing costs and (iii) technological management (fishing effort). Under alternative assumptions of productivity, market and management changes, our results indicate that fishing mortality reductions would mitigate the impacts of climate change and economic volatility over the GoL fisheries. An improvement in the overfished fisheries' management seems to be the main driver of change by 2050, over the direct impact of climate change. The market volatility (fluctuations in fish and fuel prices) will also be key for the future viability of Mediterranean fisheries.