Abstract
Fynbos and afrotemperate forest exist as alternate stable states in the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa. In parts of Table Mountain National Park, afrotemperate forest has expanded in recent decades. The aim of this project was to explore the drivers of this change and distinguish whether this expansion represents a recovery of forest after previous clearance during the 18th century or is a novel expansion of forest range that resulted from policies of fire suppression in the 20th century. To determine the relationships between forest and fynbos and its key drivers, pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, charcoal, stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C) and major and trace elements were analysed from late-Holocene sediments extracted from Orange Kloof. Pollen data show that forest cover has fluctuated over the past 3690 years. At the start of the record, under drier conditions from 1670 BCE to ~170 CE, forests contracted, and dry, asteraceous fynbos dominated the landscape. Around ~170 CE there was a shift to ericaceous fynbos as water availability increased. Weak signals of Khoekhoen pastoralists may be visible in the record around 50 CE, indicated by increased spores and charcoal. A regime shift towards increased dominance of the forest occurred ~250 CE, associated with wetter climate. Clear anthropogenic signals are associated with European settlement from 1650 CE. Reinforced by human clearance of forest, fynbos expanded during the cool conditions of the late phase of Little Ice Age (~1750–1850 CE). Forest expansion in the 20th century likely reflects fire suppression and recovery from past forest clearance. Fire needs to be managed accordingly if further expansion of forest into fynbos is to be curbed.