Abstract
We studied the potential of a recently introduced species, the Asian brush-clawed crab (Hemigrapsus takanoi), to expand its distribution range further into the Baltic Sea. H. takanoi has been documented in the southwestern Baltic Sea since 2014. The ability to persist and further expand into the Baltic Proper will depend on their potential to sustain all stages of their complex life cycle, including pelagic larvae, under the Baltic Sea's conditions. Range limits may be established by the tolerance to low salinity, which in addition may be affected by water temperature. A key question is whether local populations at the distribution limit (within the Baltic Sea) show increased tolerance to low salinities and hence promote further expansion. We quantified the combined effects of salinity (10-33 PSU) and temperature (15-24 C-degrees) on larval development in four populations of H. takanoi (two from the Baltic and two from the North Sea). We found substantial differences in larval performance between the populations from the Baltic and North Seas. Larvae from the North Sea populations always showed higher survival and faster development compared with those from the Baltic Sea. Only weak evidence of elevated tolerance towards low salinity was found in the larvae from the Baltic Sea populations. In addition, larvae from the population located near the range limit showed very low survival under all tested salinity-temperature combinations and no evidence of increased tolerance to low salinity. There was no apparent genetic differentiation among the studied populations in the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit one gene (COI) implying high connectivity among the populations. In conclusion, the weak evidence of low salinity tolerance in Baltic Sea populations, and poor larval performance for the population located near the range limit, coupled with limited genetic differentiation suggest that subsidies are needed for populations to persist near the range limit. Alternatively, ontogenetic migrations would be required to sustain those populations. Monitoring efforts are needed to elucidate the underlaying mechanisms and document potential future range expansions.