Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo; Constantin M Zohner; Peter B Reich; Jingjing Liang; Sergio de Miguel; Gert-Jan Nabuurs; Susanne S Renner; Johan van den Hoogen; Arnan Araza; Martin Herold; Leila Mirzagholi; Haozhi Ma; Colin Averill; Oliver L Phillips; Javier G P Gamarra; Iris Hordijk; Devin Routh; Meinrad Abegg; Yves C Adou Yao; Giorgio Alberti; Angelica M Almeyda Zambrano; Braulio Vilchez Alvarado; Esteban Alvarez-Dávila; Patricia Alvarez-Loayza; Luciana F Alves; Iêda Amaral; Christian Ammer; Clara Antón-Fernández; Alejandro Araujo-Murakami; Luzmila Arroyo; Valerio Avitabile; Gerardo A Aymard; Timothy R Baker; Radomir Bałazy; Olaf Banki; Jorcely G Barroso; Meredith L Bastian; Jean-Francois Bastin; Luca Birigazzi; Philippe Birnbaum; Robert Bitariho; Pascal Boeckx; Frans Bongers; Olivier Bouriaud; Pedro H S Brancalion; Susanne Brandl; Francis Q Brearley; Roel Brienen; Eben N Broadbent; Helge Bruelheide; Filippo Bussotti; Roberto Cazzolla Gatti; Ricardo G César; Goran Cesljar; Robin L Chazdon; Han Chen; Chelsea Chisholm; Hyunkook Cho; Emil Cienciala; Connie Clark; David Clark; Gabriel D Colletta; David A Coomes; Fernando Cornejo Valverde; José J Corral-Rivas; Philip M Crim; Jonathan R Cumming; Selvadurai Dayanandan; André L de Gasper; Mathieu Decuyper; Géraldine Derroire; Ben Devries; Ilija Djordjevic; Jiri Dolezal; Aurélie Dourdain; Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang; Brian J Enquist; Teresa J Eyre; Adandé Belarmain Fandohan; Tom M Fayle; Ted R Feldpausch; Leandro V Ferreira; Leena Finér; Markus Fischer; Christine Fletcher; Lorenzo Frizzera; Damiano Gianelle; Henry B Glick; David J Harris; Andrew Hector; Andreas Hemp; Geerten Hengeveld; Bruno Hérault; John L Herbohn; Annika Hillers; Eurídice N Honorio Coronado; Cang Hui; Thomas Ibanez; Nobuo Imai; Andrzej M Jagodziński; Bogdan Jaroszewicz; Vivian Kvist Johannsen; Carlos A Joly; Tommaso Jucker; Ilbin Jung; Viktor Karminov; Kuswata Kartawinata; Elizabeth Kearsley; David Kenfack; Deborah K Kennard; Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas; Gunnar Keppel; Mohammed Latif Khan; Timothy J Killeen; Hyun Seok Kim; Kanehiro Kitayama; Michael Köhl; Henn Korjus; Florian Kraxner; Dmitry Kucher; Diana Laarmann; Mait Lang; Huicui Lu; Natalia V Lukina; Brian S Maitner; Yadvinder Malhi; Eric Marcon; Beatriz Schwantes Marimon; Ben Hur Marimon-Junior; Andrew R Marshall; Emanuel H Martin; Jorge A Meave; Omar Melo-Cruz; Casimiro Mendoza; Irina Mendoza-Polo; Stanislaw Miscicki; Cory Merow; Abel Monteagudo Mendoza; Vanessa S Moreno; Sharif A Mukul; Philip Mundhenk; María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda; David Neill; Victor J Neldner; Radovan V Nevenic; Michael R Ngugi; Pascal A Niklaus; Jacek Oleksyn; Petr Ontikov; Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi; Yude Pan; Alain Paquette; Alexander Parada-Gutierrez; Elena I Parfenova; Minjee Park; Marc Parren; Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy; Pablo L Peri; Sebastian Pfautsch; Nicolas Picard; Maria Teresa F. Piedade; Daniel Piotto; Nigel C A Pitman; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; John R Poulsen; Hans Pretzsch; Freddy Ramirez Arevalo; Zorayda Restrepo-Correa; Mirco Rodeghiero; Samir G Rolim; Anand Roopsind; Francesco Rovero; Ervan Rutishauser; Purabi Saikia; Christian Salas-Eljatib; Philippe Saner; Peter Schall; Mart-Jan Schelhaas; Dmitry Schepaschenko; Michael Scherer-Lorenzen; Bernhard Schmid; Jochen Schöngart; Eric B Searle; Vladimír Seben; Josep M Serra-Diaz; Douglas Sheil; Anatoly Z Shvidenko; Javier E Silva-Espejo; Marcos Silveira; James Singh; Plinio Sist; Ferry Slik; Bonaventure Sonké; Alexandre F Souza; Krzysztof J Stereńczak; Jens-Christian Svenning; Miroslav Svoboda; Ben Swanepoel; Natalia Targhetta; Nadja Tchebakova; Hans ter Steege; Raquel Thomas; Elena Tikhonova; Peter M Umunay; Vladimir A Usoltsev; Renato Valencia; Fernando Valladares; Fons van der Plas; Tran van Do; Michael E van Nuland; Rodolfo M Vasquez; Hans Verbeeck; Helder Viana; Alexander C Vibrans; Simone Vieira; Klaus von Gadow; Hua-Feng Wang; James V Watson; Gijsbert D A Werner; Susan K Wiser; Florian Wittmann; Hannsjoerg Woell; Verginia Wortel; Roderik Zagt; Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki; Chunyu Zhang; Xiuhai Zhao; Mo Zhou; Zhi-Xin Zhu; Irie C Zo-Bi; George D Gann; Thomas W Crowther

doi:10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

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Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Journal article

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Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo, Constantin M Zohner, Peter B Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de Miguel, Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Susanne S Renner, Johan van den Hoogen, Arnan Araza, Martin Herold, …

Nature, Vol.624, pp.92-101

13/11/2023

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z

Abstract

Climate-change mitigation

Forest ecology

Restoration ecology

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

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Title: Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential
Creators - without role: Lidong Mo - ETH Zurich
Constantin M Zohner - ETH Zurich
Peter B Reich - University of Minnesota
Jingjing Liang - Purdue University West Lafayette
Sergio de Miguel - Universitat de Lleida
Gert-Jan Nabuurs - Wageningen University & Research
Susanne S Renner - Washington University in St. Louis
Johan van den Hoogen - ETH Zurich
Arnan Araza - Wageningen University & Research
Martin Herold - Helmholtz Centre Potsdam - GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences
Leila Mirzagholi - ETH Zurich
Haozhi Ma - ETH Zurich
Colin Averill - ETH Zurich
Oliver L Phillips - University of Leeds
Javier G P Gamarra - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Iris Hordijk - ETH Zurich
Devin Routh - University of Zurich
Meinrad Abegg - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Yves C Adou Yao - Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny
Giorgio Alberti - University of Udine
Angelica M Almeyda Zambrano
Braulio Vilchez Alvarado - Instituto Tecnológico de Costa Rica
Esteban Alvarez-Dávila - Universidad Nacional Abierta y a Distancia
Patricia Alvarez-Loayza - Field Museum of Natural History
Luciana F Alves - University of California, Los Angeles
Iêda Amaral
Christian Ammer - University of Göttingen
Clara Antón-Fernández - Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research
Alejandro Araujo-Murakami - Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Luzmila Arroyo - Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Valerio Avitabile - Joint Research Centre
Gerardo A Aymard
Timothy R Baker - University of Leeds
Radomir Bałazy - Instytut Badawczy Leśnictwa
Olaf Banki - Naturalis Biodiversity Center
Jorcely G Barroso - Universidade Federal do Acre
Meredith L Bastian - National Academy of Sciences
Jean-Francois Bastin
Luca Birigazzi - Ospedale Misericordia - Grosseto
Philippe Birnbaum - Université de Montpellier, BotAnique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des végétations - AMAP
Robert Bitariho - Mbarara University of Science and Technology
Pascal Boeckx - Ghent University
Frans Bongers - Wageningen University & Research
Olivier Bouriaud - Ştefan cel Mare University of Suceava
Pedro H S Brancalion - Forest Science and Research Institute
Susanne Brandl - Bavarian State Research Center for Agriculture
Francis Q Brearley - Manchester Metropolitan University
Roel Brienen - University of Leeds
Eben N Broadbent - University of Florida
Helge Bruelheide - Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg
Filippo Bussotti - University of Florence
Roberto Cazzolla Gatti
Ricardo G César - Universidade de São Paulo
Goran Cesljar - Institute of Forestry
Robin L Chazdon - University of Connecticut
Han Chen
Chelsea Chisholm - ETH Zurich
Hyunkook Cho - Korea Forest Service
Emil Cienciala - Institute of Forest Ecosystem Research
Connie Clark - Duke University
David Clark - University of Missouri–St. Louis
Gabriel D Colletta - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
David A Coomes - University of Cambridge
Fernando Cornejo Valverde
José J Corral-Rivas - Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango
Philip M Crim - West Virginia University
Jonathan R Cumming - West Virginia University
Selvadurai Dayanandan - Concordia University
André L de Gasper - Universidade Regional de Blumenau
Mathieu Decuyper - Wageningen University & Research
Géraldine Derroire - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
Ben Devries - University of Guelph
Ilija Djordjevic - Institute of Forestry
Jiri Dolezal - Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany
Aurélie Dourdain - Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement
Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang
Brian J Enquist - University of Arizona
Teresa J Eyre - Queensland Department of Environment and Science
Adandé Belarmain Fandohan - Université d'Agriculture de Kétou
Tom M Fayle - Queen Mary University of London
Ted R Feldpausch - University of Exeter
Leandro V Ferreira - Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi
Leena Finér - Natural Resources Institute Finland
Markus Fischer - University of Bern
Christine Fletcher - Forest Research Institute Malaysia
Lorenzo Frizzera - Fondazione Edmund Mach
Damiano Gianelle - Fondazione Edmund Mach
Henry B Glick
David J Harris - Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
Andrew Hector
Andreas Hemp - University of Bayreuth
Geerten Hengeveld - Wageningen University & Research
Bruno Hérault - Forests and Societies
John L Herbohn - University of the Sunshine Coast
Annika Hillers - Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Eurídice N Honorio Coronado
Cang Hui - Stellenbosch University
Thomas Ibanez - Université de Montpellier, BotAnique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des végétations - AMAP
Nobuo Imai - Tokyo University of Agriculture
Andrzej M Jagodziński - Polish Academy of Sciences
Bogdan Jaroszewicz - Białowieża National Park
Vivian Kvist Johannsen - University of Copenhagen
Carlos A Joly - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
Tommaso Jucker - University of Bristol
Ilbin Jung - Korea Forest Service
Viktor Karminov - Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Kuswata Kartawinata - Field Museum of Natural History
Elizabeth Kearsley - Ghent University
David Kenfack - Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Deborah K Kennard - Colorado Mesa University
Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas - University of Copenhagen
Gunnar Keppel - University of South Australia
Mohammed Latif Khan - Dr. Hari Singh Gour University
Timothy J Killeen - Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Hyun Seok Kim - Seoul National University
Kanehiro Kitayama - Kyoto University
Michael Köhl - Universität Hamburg
Henn Korjus - Estonian University of Life Sciences
Florian Kraxner - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Dmitry Kucher - Peoples' Friendship University of Russia
Diana Laarmann - Estonian University of Life Sciences
Mait Lang - Estonian University of Life Sciences
Huicui Lu - Qingdao Agricultural University
Natalia V Lukina
Brian S Maitner - University of Arizona
Yadvinder Malhi - University of Oxford
Eric Marcon - Université de Montpellier, BotAnique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des végétations - AMAP
Beatriz Schwantes Marimon - Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso
Ben Hur Marimon-Junior
Andrew R Marshall - University of the Sunshine Coast
Emanuel H Martin - College of African Wildlife Management
Jorge A Meave - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Omar Melo-Cruz - University of Tolima
Casimiro Mendoza - Universidad Indígena Quechua Boliviana Casimiro Huanca
Irina Mendoza-Polo
Stanislaw Miscicki
Cory Merow - University of Connecticut
Abel Monteagudo Mendoza
Vanessa S Moreno - Universidade de São Paulo
Sharif A Mukul - University of the Sunshine Coast
Philip Mundhenk - Universität Hamburg
María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda - Universidad Juárez del Estado de Durango
David Neill - Universidad Estatal Amazónica
Victor J Neldner - Queensland Department of Environment and Science
Radovan V Nevenic - Institute of Forestry
Michael R Ngugi - Queensland Department of Environment and Science
Pascal A Niklaus - University of Zurich
Jacek Oleksyn - Polish Academy of Sciences
Petr Ontikov - Bauman Moscow State Technical University
Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi - Instituto Tecnológico de Costa Rica
Yude Pan - US Forest Service
Alain Paquette - Université du Québec à Montréal
Alexander Parada-Gutierrez - Museo de Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado
Elena I Parfenova - Sukachev Institute of Forest
Minjee Park - Seoul National University
Marc Parren - Wageningen University & Research
Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy - Pondicherry University
Pablo L Peri - National Agricultural Technology Institute
Sebastian Pfautsch - Western Sydney University
Nicolas Picard - Ecologie des Forêts de Guyane
Maria Teresa F. Piedade - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Daniel Piotto - Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia
Nigel C A Pitman - Field Museum of Natural History
Axel Dalberg Poulsen - Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
John R Poulsen - The Nature Conservancy
Hans Pretzsch - Technical University of Munich
Freddy Ramirez Arevalo
Zorayda Restrepo-Correa - Fundación Con Vida
Mirco Rodeghiero - Fondazione Edmund Mach
Samir G Rolim - Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia
Anand Roopsind - Conservation International
Francesco Rovero - University of Florence
Ervan Rutishauser
Purabi Saikia - Central University of Jharkhand
Christian Salas-Eljatib
Philippe Saner
Peter Schall - University of Göttingen
Mart-Jan Schelhaas - Wageningen University & Research
Dmitry Schepaschenko - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Michael Scherer-Lorenzen - University of Freiburg
Bernhard Schmid - University of Zurich
Jochen Schöngart - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Eric B Searle - Université du Québec à Montréal
Vladimír Seben - National Forest Centre
Josep M Serra-Diaz - AgroParisTech
Douglas Sheil - Wageningen University & Research
Anatoly Z Shvidenko
Javier E Silva-Espejo - University of La Serena
Marcos Silveira - Universidade Federal do Acre
James Singh - Guyana Forestry Commission
Plinio Sist - Forests and Societies
Ferry Slik - Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Bonaventure Sonké - Université de Yaoundé I
Alexandre F Souza - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte
Krzysztof J Stereńczak
Jens-Christian Svenning
Miroslav Svoboda - Czech University of Life Sciences Prague
Ben Swanepoel - Wildlife Conservation Society
Natalia Targhetta - National Institute of Amazonian Research
Nadja Tchebakova - Sukachev Institute of Forest
Hans ter Steege - Utrecht University
Raquel Thomas - Guiana Space Centre
Elena Tikhonova
Peter M Umunay - Yale University
Vladimir A Usoltsev
Renato Valencia - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Fernando Valladares - Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales
Fons van der Plas - Wageningen University & Research
Tran van Do - Vietnamese Academy of Forest Sciences
Michael E van Nuland - Stanford University
Rodolfo M Vasquez
Hans Verbeeck - Ghent University
Helder Viana - University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro
Alexander C Vibrans - Universidade Regional de Blumenau
Simone Vieira - Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)
Klaus von Gadow - Stellenbosch University
Hua-Feng Wang
James V Watson
Gijsbert D A Werner - University of Oxford
Susan K Wiser - Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
Florian Wittmann - Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
Hannsjoerg Woell
Verginia Wortel
Roderik Zagt
Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki
Chunyu Zhang - State Forestry and Grassland Administration
Xiuhai Zhao - State Forestry and Grassland Administration
Mo Zhou - Purdue University West Lafayette
Zhi-Xin Zhu
Irie C Zo-Bi - Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny
George D Gann - Society for Ecological Restoration
Thomas W Crowther - ETH Zurich
Publication Details: Nature, Vol.624, pp.92-101
Grant note: Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
Identifiers: 9937101809311
Academic Unit: BotAnique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des végétations - AMAP
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
Local Fields: hal-04290984