Abstract
Aim Non‐climatic constraints on species northern range boundaries are often overlooked in attempts to predict climate‐induced range shifts. Here, we examined the effects of habitat availability and fire disturbance on the distribution of a species that transitions from being common to being found only in marginal populations at the northern boundary of its range. Location North‐western Quebec, Canada (46–51° N and 74–79° W). Taxon : Eastern white cedar ( Thuja occidentalis L.) Methods We used forest inventory data ( n = 4,987) to characterize white‐cedar habitat based on edaphic and topographic conditions at sampled sites along a 600‐km latitudinal gradient. Non‐metric multidimensional scaling was used to assess habitat similarity of sites in the south, where white‐cedar stands are abundant, and sites in the north, where white‐cedar stands are rare. We constructed ensemble white cedar distribution models based on habitat variables in the south and compared ensemble forecast projections of white cedar in the north with observed occurrences to determine if habitat availability was limiting. We independently estimated the age of white‐cedar stands and adjacent stands without white cedar along the gradient. ANOVA was performed to test the age difference between white‐cedar and adjacent stands to determine whether the location of white‐cedar stands was influenced by disturbance, primarily stand‐replacing fire. Results Habitat availability was not limiting the distribution of eastern white cedar at its northern range boundary. White cedar did not occupy most sites with suitable habitat in the north, suggesting that other factors prevent white cedar from establishing more stands northward. White‐cedar stands were older than adjacent stands without white cedar all along the gradient, but the difference was more pronounced in the north. This suggests that white‐cedar stands in the north are restricted to undisturbed areas. Main conclusions Fire disturbance, more than habitat availability, limits the distribution of white cedar at its northern range boundary. Projections of white cedar distribution under climate change that ignore fire could overestimate the ability of warming temperatures to extend its northern range limit.