Abstract
In the northern Humboldt Current system (NHCS), the Peruvian anchovy (Engraulis ringens) constitutes the bulk of landings and has a significant socioeconomic contribution. Understanding the impact of environment on the early-life stages of anchovy and further population dynamics remains challenging. Climate variability at a variety of scales modulates currents velocity, temperature and food availability, impacting early-life stages drift, growth and survival. In order to investigate these impacts, we developed Ichthyop-DEB, an individual-based model including larval retention processes and a Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) bioenergetic module for larval growth. First, we assessed the effect of hydrodynamic simulations horizontal resolution on simulated larval retention patterns using a recruitment age-criterion of 30 days. Then, we evaluated the impact of the following biological processes on simulated larval recruitment patterns: (i) a minimum size-criterion (2 cm), as opposed to a minimum age-criterion (30 days), to be considered as recruited, (ii) the upper larval thermal limit tolerance of the species, for which lab experiments are lacking, and (iii) a constant larval mortality rate. We found that using different resolutions of the hydrodynamic model (10 and 2 km) led to similar simulated larval retention patterns. Retention was highest when spawning occurred in the superficial layer (0–15 m) in austral winter and in the deepest considered layer (30–45 m) in summer. Coupling with the DEB model produced contrasted growth patterns on the continental shelf with a strong month-latitude interaction. Larval recruitment was strongest from 6° to 10° S in austral summer, largely contributing to the average seasonal pattern. Depending on the temperature correction function tested with the bioenergetic module, simulated larval recruitment could also be strong in the northernmost zone (2°–4°S), an area not known for abundant anchovy populations, which suggests a possible thermal growth limitation. Finally, sensitivity tests performed on larval growth limitation by food suggested a deficiency in food supply in the southernmost zone (18°–20°S).