Abstract
Background: Current trends of emerging infectious disease outbreaks (EIDs) forecast impending global epidemiological crises. Human-driven environmental changes, including climate change along with overpopulation and global travel, have been contributing to EIDs outbreaks in many developing countries. The subject has attracted increasing attention with the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, which highlights the potential threats to human and animal health, social stability, and global trade and economy. The blueprint priority diseases (BPDs) is a list established by the World Health Organization of ten zoonotic diseases, which are in urgent need of research. We proposed mapping the predictive risk of the BPDs using spatial Bayesian models and species distribution modelling of the outbreaks following the year 2000. The aim is to provide a global perspective, measure predictive risks, and evaluate the use of biogeography on predicting diseases outbreaks. We also proposed disease biogeography as a tool for identifying the potential hotspots for Disease X listed in the BPDs.