Impact of land cover and climate change on Aquifer Thermal and Energy Storage (ATES) system performance

This study investigates the impact of climate change and intense urbanization on Low-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (LT-ATES) systems. A synthetic groundwater model was developed to consider transient thermal boundary conditions due to climate change, urbanization, and evolving building thermal demands. Four scenarios were analyzed, showing potentially significant influences on subsurface thermal conditions, leading to distinct aquifer temperature profiles. The results for conditions with strong ground heat gain indicate pronounced subsurface warming and imbalanced thermal plume extensions and decreasing ATES performance over time. Recommendations include incorporating realistic surface boundary conditions in ATES modeling and strategies to mitigate adverse thermal impacts from urbanization.