Résumé
The Cerrado biome, spanning ~2 million km 2 , is one of the most extensive and biodiverse tropical savannas, yet it is paradoxically dominated by only 30 hyperdominant tree species (~2% of all species, > 50% of all stems). However, their vulnerability to climate change and the effectiveness of current conservation efforts remain uncertain. By combining (i) species distribution models calibrated with edaphic-climatic predictors and occurrence data for hyperdominant Cerrado trees with (ii) functional-trait analyses related to ecological strategies (leaf economics, bark investment, ecophysiology, drought tolerance, regeneration, and dispersal), we identified the biomass production and reproductive traits that best predict species persistence under high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5). Currently, only 427,980 km 2 (~17.4%) of the modeled potential environmental suitability falls within protected areas; under future climate scenarios, this protected suitable area is projected to decline by ~45.9% to 231,377 km 2 (~18.1%). This loss, resulting from land conversion with the expansion of agricultural frontiers and fire events, highlights a mismatch in current regional