Abstract
Abstract Projecting the combined effect of management options and the evolving climate is necessary to inform shared sustainable futures for marine activities and biodiversity. However, engaging multisectoral stakeholders in biodiversity-use scenario analysis remains a challenge. Using a French Mediterranean marine protected area (MPA) as a marine social-ecological case study, we coupled codesigned visioning narratives at horizon 2050 with an ecosystem-based model. Our analysis revealed a mismatch between the stated vision endpoints at 2050 and the model prediction narrative objectives. However, the discussions that arose from the approach opened the way for previously unidentified transformative pathways. Hybridizing research and decision-making with iterative collaborative modeling frameworks can enhance adaptive management policies, leveraging pathways toward sustainability.