Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds.

Katharine Keogan; Francis Daunt; Sarah Wanless; Richard A. Phillips; Craig A. Walling; Philippa Agnew; David G. Ainley; Tycho Anker-Nilssen; Grant Ballard; Robert T. Barrett; Kerry J. Barton; Claus Bech; Peter Becker; Per-Arvid Berglund; Loïc Bollache; Alexander L. Bond; Sandra Bouwhuis; Russell W. Bradley; Zofia M. Burr; Kees Camphuysen; Paulo Catry; André Chiaradia; Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard; Richard Cuthbert; Nina Dehnhard; Sébastien Descamps; Tony Diamond; George Divoky; Hugh Drummond; Katie M. Dugger; Michael J. Dunn; Louise Emmerson; Kjell Einar Erikstad; Jérôme Fort; William Fraser; Meritxell Genovart; Olivier Gilg; Jacob González-Solís; José Pedro Granadeiro; David Grémillet; Jannik Hansen; Sveinn A. Hanssen; Mike Harris; April Hedd; Jefferson Hinke; José Manuel Igual; Jaime Jahncke; Ian Jones; Peter J. Kappes; Johannes Lang; Magdalene Langset; Amélie Lescroël; Svein-Håkon Lorentsen; Phil O’b. Lyver; Mark Mallory; Børge Moe; William A. Montevecchi; David Monticelli; Carolyn Mostello; Mark Newell; Lisa Nicholson; Ian Nisbet; Olof Olsson; Daniel Oro; Vivian Pattison; Maud Poisbleau; Tanya Pyk; Flavio Quintana; Jaime A. Ramos; Raül Ramos; Tone Kirstin Reiertsen; Cristina Rodríguez; Peter Ryan; Ana Sanz-Aguilar; Niels M. Schmidt; Paula Shannon; Benoit Sittler; Colin Southwell; Christopher Surman; Walter S. Svagelj; Wayne Trivelpiece; Pete Warzybok; Yutaka Watanuki; Henri Weimerskirch; Peter R. Wilson; Andrew G. Wood; Albert B. Phillimore; Sue Lewis

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

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Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds.

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Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds.

Katharine Keogan, Francis Daunt, Sarah Wanless, Richard A. Phillips, Craig A. Walling, Philippa Agnew, David G. Ainley, Tycho Anker-Nilssen, Grant Ballard, Robert T. Barrett, …

Nature Climate Change, Vol.8(4), pp.313-318

04/2018

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0115-z

Abstract

Reproductive timing in many taxa plays a key role in determining breeding productivity1, and is often sensitive to climatic conditions2. Current climate change may alter the timing of breeding at different rates across trophic levels, potentially resulting in temporal mismatch between the resource requirements of predators and their prey3. This is of particular concern for higher-trophic-level organisms, whose longer generation times confer a lower rate of evolutionary rescue than primary producers or consumers4. However, the disconnection between studies of ecological change in marine systems makes it difficult to detect general changes in the timing of reproduction5. Here, we use a comprehensive meta-analysis of 209 phenological time series from 145 breeding populations to show that, on average, seabird populations worldwide have not adjusted their breeding seasons over time (−0.020 days yr−1) or in response to sea surface temperature (SST) (−0.272 days °C−1) between 1952 and 2015. However, marked between-year variation in timing observed in resident species and some Pelecaniformes and Suliformes (cormorants, gannets and boobies) may imply that timing, in some cases, is affected by unmeasured environmental conditions. This limited temperature-mediated plasticity of reproductive timing in seabirds potentially makes these top predators highly vulnerable to future mismatch with lower-trophic-level resources2.

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Title: Global phenological insensitivity to shifting ocean temperatures among seabirds.
Creators - without role: Katharine Keogan - University of Edinburgh
Francis Daunt - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Sarah Wanless - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Richard A. Phillips - British Antarctic Survey
Craig A. Walling - University of Edinburgh
Philippa Agnew - Oamaru Blue Penguin Colony
David G. Ainley - H.T. Harvey & Associates
Tycho Anker-Nilssen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Grant Ballard - Point Blue Conservation Science
Robert T. Barrett - Tromsø research foundation
Kerry J. Barton - Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
Claus Bech - Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Peter Becker - Institute of Avian Research
Per-Arvid Berglund - Department of Aquatic Resources
Loïc Bollache - Groupe de Recherche en Écologie Arctique
Alexander L. Bond - Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Sandra Bouwhuis - Institute of Avian Research
Russell W. Bradley - Point Blue Conservation Science
Zofia M. Burr - University Centre in Svalbard
Kees Camphuysen - Coastal Carolina University
Paulo Catry - ISPA - Instituto Universitário
André Chiaradia - Parks Victoria
Signe Christensen-Dalsgaard - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Richard Cuthbert - Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Nina Dehnhard - University of Antwerp
Sébastien Descamps - Norwegian Polar Institute
Tony Diamond - University of New Brunswick
George Divoky
Hugh Drummond - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Katie M. Dugger - Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife
Michael J. Dunn - British Antarctic Survey
Louise Emmerson - Australian Antarctic Division
Kjell Einar Erikstad - Norwegian Polar Institute
Jérôme Fort - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
William Fraser - Polar
Meritxell Genovart - Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies
Olivier Gilg - Groupe de Recherche en Écologie Arctique
Jacob González-Solís - Universitat de Barcelona
José Pedro Granadeiro - University of Lisbon
David Grémillet - Université de Montpellier, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CEFE
Jannik Hansen - Aarhus University
Sveinn A. Hanssen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Mike Harris - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
April Hedd - Environment and Climate Change Canada
Jefferson Hinke - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
José Manuel Igual - Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies
Jaime Jahncke - Point Blue Conservation Science
Ian Jones - Memorial University of Newfoundland
Peter J. Kappes - Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife
Johannes Lang - Groupe de Recherche en Écologie Arctique
Magdalene Langset - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Amélie Lescroël - Université de Montpellier, Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CEFE
Svein-Håkon Lorentsen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Phil O’b. Lyver - Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
Mark Mallory - Acadia University
Børge Moe - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
William A. Montevecchi - Memorial University of Newfoundland
David Monticelli - University of Coimbra
Carolyn Mostello - Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries
Mark Newell - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Lisa Nicholson - Halfmoon Biosciences
Ian Nisbet - I. C. T. Nisbet & Company
Olof Olsson - Stockholm Resilience Centre
Daniel Oro - Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies
Vivian Pattison - Laskeek Bay Conservation Society
Maud Poisbleau - University of Antwerp
Tanya Pyk - Deakin University
Flavio Quintana - Instituto de Biología Subtropical
Jaime A. Ramos - University of Coimbra
Raül Ramos - Universitat de Barcelona
Tone Kirstin Reiertsen - Norwegian Polar Institute
Cristina Rodríguez - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Peter Ryan - University of Cape Town
Ana Sanz-Aguilar - Mediterranean Institute for Advanced Studies
Niels M. Schmidt - Aarhus University
Paula Shannon - National Audubon Society
Benoit Sittler - University of Freiburg
Colin Southwell - Australian Antarctic Division
Christopher Surman - Halfmoon Biosciences
Walter S. Svagelj - National University of Mar del Plata
Wayne Trivelpiece - Shoreline Community College
Pete Warzybok - Point Blue Conservation Science
Yutaka Watanuki - Hokkaido University
Henri Weimerskirch - Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé
Peter R. Wilson - Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research
Andrew G. Wood - British Antarctic Survey
Albert B. Phillimore - University of Edinburgh
Sue Lewis - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Publication Details: Nature Climate Change, Vol.8(4), pp.313-318
Identifiers: 9934181109311
Academic Unit: Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive - CEFE
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
Local Fields: hal-01773957