Abstract
To estimate the seismic hazard, the geometry (dip, length and orientation) and the dynamics (type of displacements and amplitude) of the faults in the area of interest need to be understood. In this paper, in addition to geomorphologic observations, we present the results of two ground penetrating radar (GPR) campaigns conducted in 2010 and 2011 along the Emeelt fault in the vicinity of Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia, located in an intracontinental region with low deformation rate that induces long recurrence time between large earthquakes. As the geomorphology induced by the fault activity has been highly smoothed by erosion processes since the last event, the fault location and geometry is difficult to determine precisely. However, by using GPR first, a non-destructive and fast investigation, the fault and the sedimentary deposits near the surface can be characterized and the results can be used for the choice of trench location. GPR was performed with a 50 MHz antenna over 2-D lines and with a 500 MHz antenna for pseudo-3-D surveys. The 500 MHz GPR profiles show a good consistency with the trench observations, dug next to the pseudo-3-D surveys. The 3-D 500 MHz GPR imaging of a palaeochannel crossed by the fault allowed us to estimate its lateral displacement to be about 2 m. This is consistent with a right lateral strike-slip displacement induced by an earthquake around magnitude 7 or several around magnitude 6. The 2-D 50 MHz profiles, recorded perpendicular to the fault, show a strong reflection dipping to the NE, which corresponds to the fault plane. Those profiles provided complementary information on the fault such as its location at shallow depth, its dip angle (from 23 • to 35 •) and define its lateral extension. Central Asia is known for its high level of seismic hazards, especially Mongolia, which has been one of the most seismically active intracontinental regions in the world with four large earthquakes (magnitude around 8) along its active faults in the western part of the country during the last century (Khilko et al. 1985). The deformation in Mongolia is located between compressive structures related to the collision and penetration of the Indian plate into the Eurasian plate and extensive structures in the north of the country related with the Baykal rift (Tapponnier & Molnar 1979; Baljinnyam et al. 1993; Schlupp 1996; Bayasgalan & Jackson 1999). The seismic activity observed in the vicinity of Ulaanbaatar (UB), capital of Mongolia, is relatively low compared to the activity observed in western Mongolia. Nevertheless, since 2005, the seismic activity around UB not only has increased, but is also organized (see Fig. 1) at the west of UB along two perpendicular directions, which determine two active faults: Emeelt fault, discovered in 2008 (NNW-SSE direction, 25-km-long minimum and situated about 10 km W of UB) and Hustai fault (WSW–ENE direction, 80 km long, with its NE tip at less than 20 km west of UB); their length and morphology indicate that they can produce earthquakes of magnitude 6.5–7.5 (Schlupp et al. 2012). Most of the Mongolian population (1.2 million over 3 million) is concentrated at UB, which is the main political and economical centre of the country. Hence, the study of seismic hazard and the estimation of the probability of future destructive earthquakes are of primary importance for the country (Dugarmaa et al. 2006). Since the last large earthquake, the faults geomorphology has been highly smoothed by erosional processes and the exact location of the fault plane surface rupture is thus hidden within a several metre wide strip. The GPR method has been proven to give good and useful results to characterize faults by identifying offsets of radar reflections (Malik et al. 2007; Christie et al. 2009; Yalçiner et al. 2013) and