Résumé
Biodiversity responses to climate warming have been documented through the study of changes in distributions, abundances or phenologies of individual species or in more integrated measures such as species community richness and composition. However, whether these observed population and community changes are occurring fast enough to cope with new climatic conditions remain uncertain and hardly quantifiable. Here, using spatial and temporal trends from the French breeding bird survey, we show that although bird assemblages are strongly responding to climate warming, this response is slower than expected for catching up with the current temperature increase. During the last two decades, French birds have only achieved 54% of the response required to follow temperature increase, and have accumulated, in 18 years, a 97 km delay in their northward shift. We thus developed a framework to measure both the observed and predicted response of species assemblage to climate change, an approach which is flexible enough to be applicable to any taxa with large-scale survey data, using either abundance or distribution data. For example, it can be further used to test if different delays are found across groups or if, for a given group, the delay depends on the land-use contexts.