Résumé
We used a participatory foresight method for assessing if, and how, groundwater markets could be incorporated into local groundwater management policies. We propose an institutional setup adapted to the French water policy context, with a cap and trade scenario introducing groundwater markets in the agricultural sector between now and the 2035 horizon. Considering the local hydrogeological characteristics, we applied this method to five French groundwater basins, and then analysed the public perception of our scenario by organizing 16 half-day workshops, involving a total of 44 institutional stakeholders and 80 farmers. Overall, almost half of the participants were opposed to the introduction of groundwater markets for various ethical, economic and technical reasons. Many of the preconditions for water trading are still far from being met, and major social and economic risks are anticipated. However, our results also suggest that there might be scope for developing groundwater markets compatible with French water policy at a local scale; the preconditions for this are that specific local hydrogeological and agricultural situations are taken into account, and that a participatory process is developed, involving institutional stakeholders and farmers.