Abstract
Most Latin American glaciers are located in the tropical Andes. The melting processes of Glacier “15” on Antisana volcano were studied to understand the relationship between glacier retreat and natural climate variability and global climate change. Glaciers on the Antisana volcano are crucial sources of water as they feed the headwater rivers that supply Quito with potable water. The aim of this study was to build empirical models based on multiple correlations to reconstruct the mass loss of glaciers over a period of 10 years at three scales: local (data recorded by meteorological stations located around the volcano), regional (data from stations located around the country) and global (re-analysis data). Data quality was checked using graphical and statistical methods. Several empirical models based on multiple correlations were created to generate longer time series (42 and 115 years) of the mass balance for the glacier ablation zone. The long mass balance series were compared with the temperature variation series of the Earth’s surface in the Southern Hemisphere to estimate the relation between the mass balance and global warming. Our results suggest that the meteorological factors that best correlate with mass balance are temperature and wind.