Résumé
Aim Mountains host complex ecosystems whose wide range of ecological conditions over small geographical distances makes them biodiversity hotspots. To ensure their long-term conservation, a better understanding of the interaction between climate change and modifications in land use is necessary. Most studies have focused on only one of these factors at a time, leading to incomplete predictions. In this study, we explored the relative contribution of both recreative activities and climate change on the population dynamics of the black grouse (Tetrao tetrix), an emblematic cold-adapted species of the Alps.Methods We used data from a network of 47 monitoring sites dispersed around the French Alps and surveyed since the 1980s or 1990s. We estimated black grouse population growth rates using state-space models and tested for effects of biotic and abiotic pressures on both long-term trends and inter-annual variations in these rates.Results Population trajectories were strongly heterogeneous in space; nevertheless, a general decline at the edge of the black grouse distribution area was revealed in the southern pre-Alps. We found very little influence of hunting and new ski lift cables installation on inter-annual variability in population growth rate. In contrast, our results suggest strong impact of climatic conditions and phenology. While temperature positively influenced growth rate, precipitation had a negative effect. Early snowmelt and vegetation season were correlated with high positive values of annual population growth rates.Main conclusions Birds in mountain habitats may be drastically affected by ongoing climate change, perhaps to a greater extent than by an increase in recreational activities. However, other human activities in the mountains (such as animal grazing or forest exploitation) that were not taken into consideration in this study might also have a strong impact on habitat structure and indirectly affect populations' growth.