Abstract
Developmental plasticity, the acclimation of plants to their local environment, is known to be crucial for the fitness of perennial organisms such as trees. However, deciphering the many possible developmental and environmental influences involved in such plasticity in natural conditions requires dedicated statistical models integrating developmental phases, environmental factors and inter-individual heterogeneity. These models should be able to analyze retrospective data (number of leaves or length of annual shoots along the main stem in our case). In this study Markov switching linear mixed models were applied to the analysis of the developmental plasticity of walnut saplings during the establishment phase in a mixed Mediterranean forest. In the Markov switching linear mixed models estimated from walnut data sets, the underlying Markov chain represents both the succession and lengths of growth phases, while the linear mixed models represent both the influence of climatic factors and inter-individual heterogeneity within each growth phase. On the basis of these integrative statistical models, it is shown that walnut saplings have an opportunistic mode of development that is primarily driven by the changing light environment. In particular, light availability explains the ability of a tree to reach a phase of strong growth where the first branches can appear. It is also shown that growth fluctuation amplitudes in response to climatic factors increased while inter-individual heterogeneity decreased along tree development.