Résumé
Fig trees and their pollinating wasps form ca. 750 pairs of obligate mutualists, mainly in the tropics. Survival of each partner depends on that of its associated species. Here, we examine the possible outcome of such an interaction at small population size. Using phenology data collected on Ficus natalensis in Gabon, we modelled wasp survival and the reproductive success of the trees according to the duration of receptivity of the tree, the amplitude of flowering seasonality, and the size of the fig tree population. Since the duration of receptivity is critical in these population level models, we also determined the influence of individual selection on this phenological trait. The models give three major results: (1) The minimum fig population size required to sustain a wasp population increases with the amplitude of seasonality, and decreases with increasing duration of receptivity; (2) tree population reproductive success is higher when the duration of receptivity is longer and when the population is large, but (3) individual selection toward a long duration of receptivity is weak or absent.