Abstract
Accurate estimation of species divergence times from the analysis of genetic S equences relies on probabilistic models of evolution of the rate of molecular evolution. Importantly, while these models describe the sample paths of the substitutionrates along a phylogenetic tree, only the (random) average rate can be estimated on each edge. For mathematical convenience, the stochastic nature of these averages is generally ignored. In this article we derive the probabilistic distribution of the averagesubstitution rate assuming a geometric Brownian motion for the sample paths, and we investigate the corresponding error bounds via numerical simulations. In particular we confirm the validity of the gamma approximation proposed in Guindon (Syst Biol 62(1):22–34, 2013) for “small” values of the autocorrelation parameter.