Abstract
Highlights• We model the range of the invasive insect Homalodisca vitripennis.• Current climate conditions allow potential geographical expansion.• The effect of climate change varies according to the continent considered.• Anticipating the risk of biological invasion is a key aspect of nations' biosecurity.AbstractBiological invasions represent a major threat for biodiversity and agriculture. Despite efforts to restrict the spread of alien species, preventing their introduction remains the best strategy for an efficient control. In that context prepared-ness of phytosanitary authorities is very important and estimating the geographical range of alien species becomes a key information. The present study investigates the potential geographical range of the glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homalodisca vitripennis), a very efficient insect vector of Xylella fastidiosa, one of the most dangerous plant-pathogenic bacteria worldwide. We use species distribution modeling (SDM) to analyse the climate factors driving the insect distribution and we evaluate its potential distribution in its native range (USA) and in Europe according to current climate and different scenarios of climate change: 6 General Circulation Models (GCM), 4 shared socioeco-nomic pathways of gas emission and 4 time periods (2030, 2050, 2070, 2090). The first result is that the climate con-ditions of the European continent are suitable to the glassy-winged sharpshooter, in particular around the Mediterranean basin where X. fastidiosa is present. Projections according to future climate conditions indicate displace-ment of climatically suitable areas towards the north in both North America and Europe. Globally, suitable areas will decrease in North America and increase in Europe in the coming decades. SDM outputs vary according to the GCM con-sidered and this variability indicated areas of uncertainty in the species potential range. Both potential distribution and its uncertainty associated to future climate projections are important information for improved preparedness of phytosanitary authorities.