Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally

Viktoriia Radchuk; Carys V Jones; Nina Mclean; Anne Charmantier; Céline Teplitsky; Ray Alisauskas; Sergio Ancona; Tycho Anker-Nilssen; Peter Arcese; Debora Arlt; Lise M Aubry; Liam Bailey; Christophe Barbraud; Karl S Berg; Dominique Berteaux; Daniel T Blumstein; Sandra Bouwhuis; Ulrich Brose; Lyanne Brouwer; Paulo Catry; Guillaume Chero; Andre Chiaradia; Alexandre Courtiol; Francis Daunt; Karine Delord; F. Stephen Dobson; Hugh Drummond; Tapio Eeva; Dominique Fauteux; Gilles Gauthier; Meritxell Genovart; José P Granadeiro; Jonas Hentati-Sundberg; Michael Harris; José Manuel Igual; Fredric Janzen; Katharine Keogan; Erkki Korpimäki; Stephanie Kramer-Schadt; Loeske E B Kruuk; Sue Lewis; Mark Mallory; Julien Martin; Manuel Massot; Erik Matthysen; Jean-Baptiste Mihoub; Anders Pape Møller; Chloé R Nater; Mark Newell; Steffen Oppel; Daniel Oro; Santiago Ortega; Deseada Parejo; Tomas Pärt; Ana Payo-Payo; Josephine Pemberton; Richard A Phillips; Neville Pillay; Jesús M Avilés; Heiko G Rödel; Ana Sanz-Aguilar; Claire Saraux; Holger Schielzeth; Carsten Schradin; Julia Schroeder; Ben C Sheldon; Giacomo Tavecchia; Corey E Tarwater; Vebjørn Veiberg; Vincent A Viblanc; Dietrich von Holst; Stefan J G Vriend; Sarah Wanless; Nathaniel Wheelwright; Andrew G Wood; Bernt-Erik Sæther; Stephanie Jenouvrier; Jean Clobert; Steven R Beissinger; Marcel E Visser; Thomas E Reed; Martijn van de Pol

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8

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Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally

Article de revue scientifique

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Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally

Viktoriia Radchuk, Carys V Jones, Nina Mclean, Anne Charmantier, Céline Teplitsky, Ray Alisauskas, Sergio Ancona, Tycho Anker-Nilssen, Peter Arcese, Debora Arlt, …

Nature Communications, Vol.17

12/01/2026

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-68172-8

PMCID: PMC12800269

PMID: 41526389

Résumé

Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.

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Titre: Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally
Créateurs - sans rôle: Viktoriia Radchuk - Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
Carys V Jones - University of Oxford
Nina Mclean - Australian Government
Anne Charmantier - Université de Montpellier, CEFE - Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
Céline Teplitsky - Université de Montpellier, CEFE - Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
Ray Alisauskas - Environment and Climate Change Canada
Sergio Ancona - Instituto de Ecología
Tycho Anker-Nilssen - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Peter Arcese - University of British Columbia
Debora Arlt - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Lise M Aubry - University of Exeter
Liam Bailey - Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
Christophe Barbraud - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Karl S Berg - The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley
Dominique Berteaux - Université du Québec à Rimouski
Daniel T Blumstein - University of California, Los Angeles
Sandra Bouwhuis - Institute of Avian Research
Ulrich Brose - German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research
Lyanne Brouwer - James Cook University
Paulo Catry - Aquatic Systems (United States)
Guillaume Chero - Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
Andre Chiaradia - Parks Victoria
Alexandre Courtiol - Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
Francis Daunt - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Karine Delord - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
F. Stephen Dobson - Auburn University
Hugh Drummond - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
Tapio Eeva - University of Turku
Dominique Fauteux - Canadian Museum of Nature
Gilles Gauthier - Center for Northern Studies
Meritxell Genovart - Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes
José P Granadeiro - University of Lisbon
Jonas Hentati-Sundberg - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Michael Harris - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
José Manuel Igual - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Fredric Janzen - Michigan Department of Natural Resources
Katharine Keogan - University of Edinburgh
Erkki Korpimäki - University of Turku
Stephanie Kramer-Schadt - Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research
Loeske E B Kruuk - University of Edinburgh
Sue Lewis - Edinburgh Napier University
Mark Mallory - Acadia University
Julien Martin - University of Ottawa
Manuel Massot - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Erik Matthysen - University of Antwerp
Jean-Baptiste Mihoub - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Anders Pape Møller - Université Paris-Sud
Chloé R Nater - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Mark Newell - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Steffen Oppel - Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Daniel Oro - Centre d'Estudis Avançats de Blanes
Santiago Ortega - Instituto de Ecología
Deseada Parejo - Estacion Experimental de Zonas Aridas
Tomas Pärt - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Ana Payo-Payo - Universidad Complutense de Madrid
Josephine Pemberton - University of Edinburgh
Richard A Phillips - British Antarctic Survey
Neville Pillay - University of the Witwatersrand
Jesús M Avilés - Estacion Experimental de Zonas Aridas
Heiko G Rödel - Sorbonne Université
Ana Sanz-Aguilar - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Claire Saraux - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Holger Schielzeth - Friedrich Schiller University Jena
Carsten Schradin - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Julia Schroeder - Imperial College London
Ben C Sheldon - University of Oxford
Giacomo Tavecchia - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Corey E Tarwater - University of Wyoming
Vebjørn Veiberg - Norwegian Institute for Nature Research
Vincent A Viblanc - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Dietrich von Holst - University of Bayreuth
Stefan J G Vriend - Netherlands Institute of Ecology
Sarah Wanless - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Nathaniel Wheelwright - Bowdoin College
Andrew G Wood - British Antarctic Survey
Bernt-Erik Sæther - Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Stephanie Jenouvrier - Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Jean Clobert - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Steven R Beissinger - University of California, Berkeley
Marcel E Visser - Netherlands Institute of Ecology
Thomas E Reed - University College Cork
Martijn van de Pol - James Cook University
Détails de publication: Nature Communications, Vol.17
Note de subvention: This manuscript is a result of the sDiv-funded group sTraitChange and two workshops supported by sDiv (Synthesis Centre at German Center for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Jena-Halle-Leipzig). We are grateful to the many researchers who collected field data and kindly shared them. Among others, we would like to thank Rocky Rockwell, Gregory Brown, I-Jiunn Cheng, Wolf, Vladimir Grosbois, Eric Hansen, Oliver Kruger, Andrew Cockburn, Scott Sillett, Heather Renner, Don Dragoo, William J. Sydeman, Cristina Rodríguez Juarez and the sTraitChange Data Consortium (a full list of consortium members appears in Supplementary Note 1). Without such contributions, this study would have been impossible. Sadly, M.H. and D.v.H. passed away during the development of this manuscript. Their long-term datasets are included in this study, and we are indebted to their invaluable contribution. We thank Thomas Banitz for his participation in the sTraitChange workshops and contributions to this study. We thank the UKCEH National Capability for UK Challenges programme NE/Y006208/1 and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee for financial support. This study is part of the long-term Studies in Ecology and Evolution (SEE-Life) program of the CNRS. We acknowledge funding from NSF ORCC project # 2222057 to S.J., NSF DEB project 0089473 to F.S.D., Research Council of Finland grant SA338180 to T.E., Swedish Research Council grant 2021-03892 to J.H.-S., ERC Starting Grant 639192-ALH to T.E.R., Research Council of Norway (project 223257) and the European Research Council (ERC-2022-AdG-101095997) to B.-E.S., Natural Environment Research Council, UK to J.P., Funding by Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (PAPIIT IN211491, IN-200702-3, IN206610-3, IN205313 and IN205819), Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología (81823, 47599, 34500-V, 4722-N9407, 104313) and National Geographic Society (991416) to H.D., Natural Environment Research Council, UK to L.K., BOF-Methusalem grant (48098) to E.M., UID/04292—Centro de Ciências do Mar e do Ambiente (MARE), LA/P/0069/2020 to the Associate Laboratory ARNET, and from the Falkland Islands Government to P.C., NSF DEB-1242510 to F.J., the Spanish Ministry of Science and EU FEDER funds (PID2021-122893NB-C21) to D.O., Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación/AEI and EU-FEDER funds (PID2021-124731NB-I00, PIE202230I133) to M.G., and Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia I.P. via cE3c (DOI: 10.54499/UIDB/00329/2020) and CHANGE (LA/P/0121/2020), national funds, and the co-funding by the FEDER, within the PT2020 Partnership Agreement and Compete 2020 to J.P.G. S.R.B. and K.S.B. acknowledge multiple grants from the National Science Foundation, Smithsonian Institution, and National Geographic Society, as well as support from the Maxwell-Hanrahan Foundation for parrotlet studies. Data from Pointe Géologie were collected with the logistical and financial support from Institut Polaire Français Paul-Emile Victor (IPEV), Terres Australes et Antarctiques Françaises, and Zone Atelier Antarctique et Terres Australes (LTSER France). Data from Montpellier was collected with long-term support from the OSU-OREME.
Identifiants: 99242680309311
Unité académique: CEFE - Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive
Langue: Anglais
Type de ressource: Article de revue scientifique
Champs locaux: hal-05479090