Résumé
Long-term vegetation studies are needed to better predict the impact of future climate change on vegetation structure and distribution. According to the IPCC scenario, the Mediterranean region is expected to undergo significant climatic variability over the course of this century. Cedrus libani (A. Rich), in particular, is currently distributed in limited areas in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which are expected to be affected by such climate change. In order to predict the impact of future global warming, we have used fossil pollen data and model simulations. Palaeobotanical data show that C. libani has been affected by both climate change and human activities. Populations of C. libani survived in refugial zones when climatic conditions were less favourable and its range extended during periods of more suitable climate conditions. Simulations of its future geographical distribution for the year 2100 using a dynamic vegetation model show that only three areas from Mount Lebanon may allow its survival. These results extrapolated for cedar forests for the entire Eastern Mediterranean region show that forests in Syria are also threatened by future global warming. In southern Turkey, cedar forests seem to be less threatened. These results are expected to help in the long-term conservation of cedar forests in the Near East.