Résumé
Consequences of short-term changes in thermotolerant coliform loads on their spatio-temporal distribution in a Mediterranean lagoon with large-scale mollusk farming (Thau lagoon, France) were explored using a simulation approach. Simulations were based on bacterial transport and survival coupled models forced by the input of bacterial loads from the two main rivers (Vène and Pallas) that flow into the lagoon. Different flow types (reference, sudden and constant), bringing the same bacterial load, were considered and subsequent spatial and temporal bacterial contamination of lagoon surface water and shellfish was estimated. Simulation results showed that as long as loads were high, hydrodynamical processes governed the distribution of bacterial abundance in receiving areas. As soon as loads decreased or when time supply increased, biological die-off processes became dominant. Bacterial contamination of shellfish induced by the different flow types appeared to depend on the receiving area. In the case of Pallas River area, a sudden input of bacteria led to a high bacterial contamination of shellfish but only during a short period (≈1 day). A constant input of the same amount of bacteria induced a lower but significant contamination during all the simulation period (10 days). On the contrary, bacterial inputs from the Vène River led to shellfish contamination only when bacteria were delivered through a flood event. Exposure time of bacteria to adverse environmental conditions appeared to be the main explanation to the above-mentioned differences. Consequences of our results in terms of environmental management strategy were discussed.