Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

Wannes Hubau; Simon L. Lewis; Oliver L. Phillips; Kofi Affum-Baffoe; Hans Beeckman; Aida Cuní-Sanchez; Armandu K. Daniels; Corneille E. N. Ewango; Sophie Fauset; Jacques M. Mukinzi; Douglas Sheil; Bonaventure Sonké; Martin J. P. Sullivan; Terry C. H. Sunderland; Hermann Taedoumg; Sean C. Thomas; Lee J. T. White; Katharine A. Abernethy; Stephen Adu-Bredu; Christian A. Amani; Timothy R. Baker; Lindsay F. Banin; Fidèle Baya; Serge K. Begne; Amy C. Bennett; Fabrice Benedet; Robert Bitariho; Yannick E. Bocko; Pascal Boeckx; Patrick Boundja; Roel J. W. Brienen; Terry Brncic; Eric Chezeaux; George B. Chuyong; Connie J. Clark; Murray Collins; James A. Comiskey; David A. Coomes; Greta C. Dargie; Thales de Haulleville; Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem; Jean-Louis Doucet; Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert; Ted R. Feldpausch; Alusine Fofanah; Ernest G. Foli; Martin Gilpin; Emanuel Gloor; Christelle Gonmadje; Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury; Jefferson S. Hall; Alan C. Hamilton; David J. Harris; Terese B. Hart; Mireille B. N. Hockemba; Annette Hladik; Suspense A. Ifo; Kathryn J. Jeffery; Tommaso Jucker; Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu; Elizabeth Kearsley; David Kenfack; Alexander Koch; Miguel E. Leal; Aurora Levesley; Jeremy A. Lindsell; Janvier Lisingo; Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez; Jon C. Lovett; Jean-Remy Makana; Yadvinder Malhi; Andrew R. Marshall; Jim Martin; Emanuel H. Martin; Faustin M. Mbayu; Vincent P. Medjibe; Vianet Mihindou; Edward T. A. Mitchard; Sam Moore; Pantaleo K. T. Munishi; Natacha Nssi Bengone; Lucas Ojo; Fidèle Evouna Ondo; Kelvin S.-H. Peh; Georgia C. Pickavance; Axel Dalberg Poulsen; John R. Poulsen; Lan Qie; Jan Reitsma; Francesco Rovero; Michael D. Swaine; Joey Talbot; James Taplin; David M. Taylor; Duncan W. Thomas; Benjamin Toirambe; John Tshibamba Mukendi; Darlington Tuagben; Peter M. Umunay; Geertje M. F. van der Heijden; Hans Verbeeck; Jason Vleminckx; Simon Willcock; Hannsjörg Wöll; John T. Woods; Lise Zemagho

doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0

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Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

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Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

Wannes Hubau, Simon L. Lewis, Oliver L. Phillips, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Hans Beeckman, Aida Cuní-Sanchez, Armandu K. Daniels, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Sophie Fauset, Jacques M. Mukinzi, …

Nature (London), Vol.579(7797), pp.80-87

05/03/2020

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0

PMID: 32132693

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631/158/2450

631/158/2454

704/106/694/2739

704/106/694/2786

704/158/2445

9/10

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Humanities and Social Sciences

multidisciplinary

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Science (multidisciplinary)

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions 1 – 3 . Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades 4 , 5 . Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53–0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests 6 . Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature 7 – 9 . Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass 10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth’s climate. Unlike Amazonian forests, African forests have maintained their carbon sink until recently but by 2030 the African carbon sink will have shrunk by 14 per cent and the Amazonian sink will reach almost zero.

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Titre: Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests
Créateurs - sans rôle: Wannes Hubau - Ghent University
Simon L. Lewis - School of Geography, University of Leeds, Department of Geography, University College London
Oliver L. Phillips - School of Geography, University of Leeds
Kofi Affum-Baffoe - Mensuration Unit, Forestry Commission of Ghana
Hans Beeckman - Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa
Aida Cuní-Sanchez - Department of Geography, University College London, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York
Armandu K. Daniels - Forestry Development Authority of the Government of Liberia (FDA)
Corneille E. N. Ewango - DR Congo Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society, Centre de Formation et de Recherche en Conservation Forestière (CEFRECOF), Faculté de Gestion de Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables, Université de Kisangani
Sophie Fauset - University of Plymouth
Jacques M. Mukinzi - DR Congo Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society, Salonga National Park, World Wide Fund for Nature
Douglas Sheil - Faculty of Environmental Sciences and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Bonaventure Sonké - Plant Systematic and Ecology Laboratory, Higher Teachers’ Training College, University of Yaounde I
Martin J. P. Sullivan - School of Geography, University of Leeds, Department of Natural Sciences, Manchester Metropolitan University
Terry C. H. Sunderland - Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Faculty of Forestry, University of British Columbia
Hermann Taedoumg - Plant Systematic and Ecology Laboratory, Higher Teachers’ Training College, University of Yaounde I, Bioversity International
Sean C. Thomas - University of Toronto
Lee J. T. White - Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate, Institut de Recherche en Écologie Tropicale, Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling
Katharine A. Abernethy - University of Stirling
Stephen Adu-Bredu - Forestry Research Institute of Ghana
Christian A. Amani - Université Officielle de Bukavu
Timothy R. Baker - School of Geography, University of Leeds
Lindsay F. Banin - UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Fidèle Baya - Ministère des Eaux, Forêts, Chasse et Pêche (MEFCP), Institut Centrafricain de Recherche Agronomique (ICRA)
Serge K. Begne - School of Geography, University of Leeds, Plant Systematic and Ecology Laboratory, Higher Teachers’ Training College, University of Yaounde I
Amy C. Bennett - University of Leeds
Fabrice Benedet - Université de Montpellier
Robert Bitariho - Mbarara University of Science and Technology
Yannick E. Bocko - Faculté des Sciences et Techniques, Laboratoire de Botanique et Écologie, Université Marien Ngouabi
Pascal Boeckx - Ghent University
Patrick Boundja - Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), Congo Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society
Roel J. W. Brienen - School of Geography, University of Leeds
Terry Brncic - Congo Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society
Eric Chezeaux - Rougier-Gabon
George B. Chuyong - University of Buea
Connie J. Clark - Duke University
Murray Collins - University of Edinburgh
James A. Comiskey - Smithsonian Institution
David A. Coomes - University of Cambridge
Greta C. Dargie - University of Leeds
Thales de Haulleville - Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa
Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem - Faculty of Science, Department of Botany and Plant Physiology, University of Buea
Jean-Louis Doucet - TERRA, Forest is Life, Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, University of Liège
Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert - School of Geography, University of Leeds, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham
Ted R. Feldpausch - University of Exeter
Alusine Fofanah - The Gola Rainforest National Park
Ernest G. Foli - Forestry Research Institute of Ghana
Martin Gilpin - University of Leeds
Emanuel Gloor - School of Geography, University of Leeds
Christelle Gonmadje - National Herbarium
Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury - Forêts et Sociétés (F&S), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (CIRAD), Forêts et Sociétés (F&S), Université de Montpellier
Jefferson S. Hall - Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO), Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Alan C. Hamilton - Kunming Institute of Botany
David J. Harris - Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
Terese B. Hart - Yale Peabody Museum
Mireille B. N. Hockemba - Congo Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society
Annette Hladik - Département Hommes et Environnement, Muséum National d’Histoire Naturel
Suspense A. Ifo - École Normale Supérieure (ENS), Département des Sciences et Vie de la Terre, Laboratoire de Géomatique et d’Écologie Tropicale Appliquée, Université Marien Ngouabi
Kathryn J. Jeffery - Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Stirling
Tommaso Jucker - University of Bristol
Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu - Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Department of Environment, Laboratory of Wood Technology (Woodlab), Ghent University, Faculté de Gestion de Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables, Université de Kisangani
Elizabeth Kearsley - Ghent University
David Kenfack - Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO), Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network
Alexander Koch - Department of Geography, University College London, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Hong Kong
Miguel E. Leal - Wildlife Conservation Society
Aurora Levesley - University of Leeds
Jeremy A. Lindsell - Royal Society for the Protection of Birds
Janvier Lisingo - Université de Kisangani
Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez - School of Geography, University of Leeds
Jon C. Lovett - University of Leeds
Jean-Remy Makana - Université de Kisangani
Yadvinder Malhi - University of Oxford
Andrew R. Marshall - Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, Tropical Forests and People Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Flamingo Land Ltd
Jim Martin - Fleming College
Emanuel H. Martin - Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network, Udzungwa Ecological Monitoring Centre
Faustin M. Mbayu - Faculté de Gestion de Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables, Université de Kisangani
Vincent P. Medjibe - Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Commission of Central African Forests (COMIFAC), Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux
Vianet Mihindou - Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate, Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux
Edward T. A. Mitchard - School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh
Sam Moore - University of Oxford
Pantaleo K. T. Munishi - Sokoine University of Agriculture
Natacha Nssi Bengone - Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate
Lucas Ojo - University of Abeokuta
Fidèle Evouna Ondo - Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux
Kelvin S.-H. Peh - School of Biological Sciences, University of Southampton, Department of Zoology, Conservation Science Group, University of Cambridge
Georgia C. Pickavance - University of Leeds
Axel Dalberg Poulsen - Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
John R. Poulsen - Duke University
Lan Qie - University of Leeds
Jan Reitsma - Bureau Waardenburg
Francesco Rovero - University of Florence
Michael D. Swaine - University of Aberdeen
Joey Talbot - University of Leeds
James Taplin - Innovate UK
David M. Taylor - National University of Singapore
Duncan W. Thomas - Washington State University
Benjamin Toirambe - Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Ministère de l’Environnement et Développement Durable
John Tshibamba Mukendi - Service of Wood Biology, Royal Museum for Central Africa, Faculté de Gestion de Ressources Naturelles Renouvelables, Université de Kisangani, Faculté des Sciences Appliquées, Université de Mbujimayi
Darlington Tuagben - Forestry Development Authority of the Government of Liberia (FDA), Friends of Ecosystem and the Environment
Peter M. Umunay - Yale University
Geertje M. F. van der Heijden - School of Geography, University of Nottingham
Hans Verbeeck - Ghent University
Jason Vleminckx - Florida International University
Simon Willcock - School of Natural Sciences, University of Bangor
Hannsjörg Wöll - Independent Researcher
John T. Woods - University of Liberia
Lise Zemagho - Plant
Détails de publication: Nature (London), Vol.579(7797), pp.80-87
Éditeur: Nature Publishing Group UK
Nombre de pages: 8
Identifiants: 99148975109311
Unité académique: BotAnique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des végétations - AMAP
Langue: English
Type de ressource: Journal article