Abstract
With a decline exceeding 30%over three generations, the once-common European Turtle-dove isnow considered globally threatened by IUCN.As a legal game species in 10 European countries, therecent International Single Species Action Plan for this species highlighted the need to carry out anassessment of the sustainability of current levels of hunting. In 2013–2014, theWestern Europeanpopulation was estimated at 1.3–2.1 million pairs, and the hunting bag in the same region to be 1.1million birds. Using the Demographic Invariant Method, we assessed whether current levels ofhunting harvest within Europe constitute overexploitation of the western flyway European Turtledovepopulation.We calculated the maximum growth rate λmax that a population might achieve inthe absence of any additive mortality. Then we estimated the potential maximum harvestablepopulation fraction (P) allowed by excess population growth.We explored a wide range of plausiblescenarios relating to assumed demographic rates, geographic scope of the flyway and managementobjectives. λmax was estimated to lie between 1.551 and 1.869. Current levels of hunting along thewestern flyway are more than double the sustainable fraction (P) under all suitably conservativescenarios, and only fall below this threshold under the most restrictive assumptions.We concludethat current levels of legal hunting along the western flyway are unlikely to be sustainable.Reducing uncertainty associated with assessments of the sustainability of turtle dove hunting willrequire improved information on (in order of decreasing importance) current levels of hunting,adult survival, age structure and population size