Assessing changes in global fire regimes

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi; Benjamin Abbott; Boris Vannière; Bérangère Leys; Daniele Colombaroli; Graciela Gil Romera; Michał Słowiński; Julie Aleman; Olivier Blarquez; Angelica Feurdean; Kendrick Brown; Tuomas Aakala; Teija Alenius; Kathryn Allen; Maja Andric; Yves Bergeron; Siria Biagioni; Richard Bradshaw; Laurent Bremond; Elodie Brisset; Joseph Brooks; Sandra Brugger; Thomas Brussel; Haidee Cadd; Eleonora Cagliero; Christopher Carcaillet; Vachel Carter; Filipe Catry; Antoine Champreux; Emeline Chaste; Raphaël Daniel Chavardès; Melissa Chipman; Marco Conedera; Simon Connor; Mark Constantine; Colin Courtney Mustaphi; Abraham Dabengwa; William Daniels; Erik de Boer; Elisabeth Dietze; Joan Estrany; Paulo Fernandes; Walter Finsinger; Suzette Flantua; Paul Fox-Hughes; Dorian Gaboriau; Eugenia M.Gayo; Martin. Girardin; Jeffrey Glenn; Ramesh Glückler; Catalina González-Arango; Mariangelica Groves; Douglas Hamilton; Rebecca Jenner Hamilton; Stijn Hantson; K. Anggi Hapsari; Mark Hardiman; Donna Hawthorne; Kira Hoffman; Jun Inoue; Allison Karp; Patrik Krebs; Charuta Kulkarni; Niina Kuosmanen; Terri Lacourse; Marie-Pierre Ledru; Marion Lestienne; Colin Long; José Antonio López-Sáez; Nicholas Loughlin; Mats Niklasson; Javier Madrigal; S. Yoshi Maezumi; Katarzyna Marcisz; Michela Mariani; David Mcwethy; Grant Meyer; Chiara Molinari; Encarni Montoya; Scott Mooney; Cesar Morales-Molino; Jesse Morris; Patrick Moss; Imma Oliveras; José Miguel Pereira; Gianni Boris Pezzatti; Nadine Pickarski; Roberta Pini; Emma Rehn; Cécile Remy; Jordi Revelles; Damien Rius; Vincent Robin; Yanming Ruan; Natalia Rudaya; Jeremy Russell-Smith; Heikki Seppä; Lyudmila Shumilovskikh; William T.Sommers; Çağatay Tavşanoğlu; Charles Umbanhowar; Erickson Urquiaga; Dunia Urrego; Richard Vachula; Tuomo Wallenius; Chao You; Anne-Laure Daniau

doi:10.1186/s42408-023-00237-9

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Assessing changes in global fire regimes

Journal article

Open access

Assessing changes in global fire regimes

Sayedeh Sara Sayedi, Benjamin Abbott, Boris Vannière, Bérangère Leys, Daniele Colombaroli, Graciela Gil Romera, Michał Słowiński, Julie Aleman, Olivier Blarquez, Angelica Feurdean, …

Fire Ecology, Vol.20(1)

2024

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s42408-023-00237-9

Abstract

Climate change

Ecosystem services

Expert assessment

Fire regime

Holocene

Management

Biome

Background The global human footprint has fundamentally altered wildfire regimes, creating serious consequences for human health, biodiversity, and climate. However, it remains difficult to project how long-term interactions among land use, management, and climate change will affect fire behavior, representing a key knowledge gap for sustainable management. We used expert assessment to combine opinions about past and future fire regimes from 99 wildfire researchers. We asked for quantitative and qualitative assessments of the frequency, type, and implications of fire regime change from the beginning of the Holocene through the year 2300.Results Respondents indicated some direct human influence on wildfire since at least ~ 12,000 years BP, though natural climate variability remained the dominant driver of fire regime change until around 5,000 years BP, for most study regions. Responses suggested a ten-fold increase in the frequency of fire regime change during the last 250 years compared with the rest of the Holocene, corresponding first with the intensification and extensification of land use and later with anthropogenic climate change. Looking to the future, fire regimes were predicted to intensify, with increases in frequency, severity, and size in all biomes except grassland ecosystems. Fire regimes showed different climate sensitivities across biomes, but the likelihood of fire regime change increased with higher warming scenarios for all biomes. Biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services were predicted to decrease for most biomes under higher emission scenarios. We present recommendations for adaptation and mitigation under emerging fire regimes, while recognizing that management options are constrained under higher emission scenarios.Conclusion The influence of humans on wildfire regimes has increased over the last two centuries. The perspective gained from past fires should be considered in land and fire management strategies, but novel fire behavior is likely given the unprecedented human disruption of plant communities, climate, and other factors. Future fire regimes are likely to degrade key ecosystem services, unless climate change is aggressively mitigated. Expert assessment complements empirical data and modeling, providing a broader perspective of fire science to inform decision making and future research priorities.

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Title: Assessing changes in global fire regimes
Creators - without role: Sayedeh Sara Sayedi - Brigham Young University
Benjamin Abbott - Brigham Young University
Boris Vannière - Université de franche-comté
Bérangère Leys - Aix-Marseille Université
Daniele Colombaroli - Royal Holloway University of London
Graciela Gil Romera - Philipps University of Marburg
Michał Słowiński - Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences
Julie Aleman - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Olivier Blarquez - Université de Montréal
Angelica Feurdean - Goethe University Frankfurt
Kendrick Brown - Canadian Forest Service
Tuomas Aakala - University of Eastern Finland
Teija Alenius - University of Turku
Kathryn Allen - University of Tasmania
Maja Andric - Karst Research Institute
Yves Bergeron - Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Siria Biagioni - University of Göttingen
Richard Bradshaw - University of Liverpool
Laurent Bremond - Université de Montpellier, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution - Montpellier - ISEM
Elodie Brisset - Aix-Marseille Université
Joseph Brooks - University of Liverpool
Sandra Brugger - University of Basel
Thomas Brussel - University of Oregon
Haidee Cadd - University of Wollongong
Eleonora Cagliero - University of Padua
Christopher Carcaillet - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres
Vachel Carter - Los Alamos National Laboratory
Filipe Catry - University of Lisbon
Antoine Champreux - Flinders University
Emeline Chaste - Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement
Raphaël Daniel Chavardès - Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Melissa Chipman - Syracuse University
Marco Conedera - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Simon Connor - Centre for Australian National Biodiversity Research
Mark Constantine - Environmental Earth Sciences
Colin Courtney Mustaphi - University of Basel
Abraham Dabengwa - University of the Witwatersrand
William Daniels - University of Massachusetts Amherst
Erik de Boer - Centre for Research on Ecology and Forestry Applications
Elisabeth Dietze - Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Joan Estrany - Universitat de les Illes Balears
Paulo Fernandes - University of Trás-os-Montes and Alto Douro
Walter Finsinger - Université de Montpellier, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution - Montpellier - ISEM
Suzette Flantua - University of Bergen
Paul Fox-Hughes - Bureau of Meteorology
Dorian Gaboriau - Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue
Eugenia M.Gayo - University of Chile
Martin. Girardin - Natural Resources Canada
Jeffrey Glenn - Brigham Young University
Ramesh Glückler - Alfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
Catalina González-Arango - Universidad de los Andes [Bogota]
Mariangelica Groves - Weber State University
Douglas Hamilton - North Carolina State University
Rebecca Jenner Hamilton - Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History
Stijn Hantson - Universidad del Rosario
K. Anggi Hapsari - University of Göttingen
Mark Hardiman - University of Portsmouth
Donna Hawthorne - University of St Andrews
Kira Hoffman - University of British Columbia
Jun Inoue - Tokyo Metropolitan University
Allison Karp - Yale University
Patrik Krebs - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Charuta Kulkarni - Indian Institute of Technology Madras
Niina Kuosmanen - University of Helsinki
Terri Lacourse - University of Victoria
Marie-Pierre Ledru - Université de Montpellier, Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution - Montpellier - ISEM
Marion Lestienne - Ecosystèmes, Biodiversité, Evolution
Colin Long - University of Wisconsin–Oshkosh
José Antonio López-Sáez - Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas
Nicholas Loughlin - Northumbria University
Mats Niklasson - Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
Javier Madrigal - Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria
S. Yoshi Maezumi - Max Planck Institute for the Science of Human History
Katarzyna Marcisz - Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań
Michela Mariani - University of Nottingham
David Mcwethy - Montana State University
Grant Meyer - University of New Mexico
Chiara Molinari - University of Genoa
Encarni Montoya - Geociencias Barcelona
Scott Mooney - Environmental Earth Sciences
Cesar Morales-Molino - Universidad de Alcalá
Jesse Morris - University of Utah
Patrick Moss - University of Queensland
Imma Oliveras - Environmental Change Institute
José Miguel Pereira - University of Lisbon
Gianni Boris Pezzatti - Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
Nadine Pickarski - University of Münster
Roberta Pini - Institute of Environmental Geology and Geoengineering
Emma Rehn - James Cook University
Cécile Remy - University of Augsburg
Jordi Revelles - Institut Català de Paleoecologia Humana i Evolució Social
Damien Rius - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Vincent Robin - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire des Environnements Continentaux
Yanming Ruan - Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Natalia Rudaya - Institute of Archaeology and Ethnography
Jeremy Russell-Smith - Charles Darwin University
Heikki Seppä - University of Helsinki
Lyudmila Shumilovskikh - University of Göttingen
William T.Sommers - George Mason University
Çağatay Tavşanoğlu - Hacettepe University
Charles Umbanhowar - St. Olaf College
Erickson Urquiaga - University of Zurich
Dunia Urrego - University of Exeter
Richard Vachula - Auburn University
Tuomo Wallenius - University of Helsinki
Chao You - Chinese Academy of Sciences
Anne-Laure Daniau - Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques
Publication Details: Fire Ecology, Vol.20(1)
Identifiers: 9935207809311
Academic Unit: Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution - Montpellier - ISEM
Language: English
Resource Type: Journal article
Local Fields: hal-04447316