Résumé
The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a competent vector of arboviruses, such as dengue. After its introduction into southern Europe, this invasive species has been rapidly spreading as well as causing autochthonous cases of arboviral diseases. Both Ae. albopictus presence and potential to transmit arboviruses are facilitated at warm temperatures; hence, global warming is expected to affect their presence in temperate regions. We use a climate- and environmental-driven mechanistic modeling framework to investigate the impact of recent climate change on Ae. albopictus range expansion and its potential to transmit dengue in Western Europe. We simulate climatic suitability, adult density, and dengue transmission risk, which we compare with a large ensemble of entomological and epidemiological observations over the past 20 years. Most importantly, we analyze a novel spatiotemporal dataset of colonized municipalities in metropolitan France to estimate the spread rate of Ae. albopictus and compare it with model predictions. Lastly, we analyze the sensitivity of entomological and epidemiological risk to changes in temperature, rainfall, and human density. Distribution of simulated mosquito populations and dengue transmission risk satisfactorily match entomological and dengue observations for Western Europe (AUC = 0.90 and 0.75 respectively). While lowlands in southern Europe were already climatically suitable for hosting Ae. albopictus around 2010, Western France, together with large populated cities, such as London, Zagreb, and Vienna, has become suitable recently. Importantly, the accelerating colonization of Ae. albopictus in France may be approaching the limit of its theoretical climatic niche; future expansion will depend on the climate-driven enlargement of suitable areas. The area at risk of dengue transmission has recently expanded from the Mediterranean coasts over northern Spain and Western France. The sensitivity analysis suggests that climate change may expose medium-sized cities to the highest epidemiological risk; this finding is consistent with recently reported dengue outbreaks in Europe.